A Location Model for Urban Hierarchy Planning with Population Dynamics

Abstract

IntroductionThe quality of life in cities and regions depends strongly on the accessibility of their population to services such as education, health care, public safety, and justice. For this reason the decisions regarding the location and size of the facilities associated with those services need to be carefully planned.Very often decisions of that kind are made in the context of spatial development plans through a comprehensive approach. When this is the case, rather than defining whether a particular facility should be located in a particular urban center in some region, planners will typically aim at defining the region's urban hierarchy öthat is, the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region, each level being characterized by a class of facilities. For instance, in a three-level hierarchy, facilities such as elementary schools or basic health care units could be associated with firstlevel centers, whereas secondary schools and local hospitals could be associated with second-level centers, and universities and central hospitals with third-level centers. Note that centers at the higher levels of hierarchy are typically assumed to have all lower level facilities as well (or, in the case of facilities such as hospitals, to be able to provide all services available at lower level facilities).The decision to elevate an urban center to a new level of hierarchy implies a large investment of public funds, opening of new job opportunities, relocation of associated`spin-off' industries, etc ö all of these factors likely leading to significant increases of population at the`elevated' centers, with corresponding future increases of demand for services. Of course, these increases in population are likely to be due

Multiperiod Hierarchical Location Problem of Transit Hub in Urban Agglomeration Area

“…A genetic algorithm based heuristic was utilized to solve the problem. Antunes et al [24] proposed a multiperiod hierarchical location model for urban hierarchy planning, aiming at minimizing the total demand weighted travel time for the residents to get service from different-level facilities during several time periods. Pehlivan et al [3] studied the adjustment of hierarchical perinatal network, that is, when and where to locate different-level maternity facilities.…”

The Relationship between Population Dynamics and Urban Hierarchy

“…This section contains detailed information on the utilization of regression analysis techniques to assess the relationship between population dynamics and urban hierarchy observed in Portugal during the period 1991-2001. The starting point for the analysis was the population dynamics equation postulated in Antunes et al (2009) for the administrative/function-based urban hierarchy presented in the second section. We followed the methodology proposed in Florax and Folmer (1992)-that is, we started with an ordinary regression analysis model, identified its shortcomings, and then moved to a better model using spatial regression analysis techniques.…”

“…Intuitively, the planning decisions regarding the level of urban hierarchy of a given population center should have a significant effect on the spatial distribution of population in future periods since these decisions are directly linked to the distribution of services and jobs. Indeed, such an effect is assumed in Antunes et al (2009) who develop a decision-support model that explicitly links the decisions regarding the urban hierarchy to the changes in the future spatial distribution of the population. In fact, a specific mechanism linking the urban hierarchy designations and population migration patterns is postulated in that article.…”

“…Thus, the primary goal of the study described in this article is to establish the explicit linkage between urban hierarchy (or, more specifically, urban hierarchy level designation and the subsequent planning consequences of such designation) and population dynamics. A secondary goal is to test whether the specific relationship assumed in Antunes et al (2009) is supported by the statistical evidence. This is important since this relationship is particularly convenient to use in planning decisions, as opposed to basing the model on a more complex set of variables that are not controllable by planners.…”

“…Our interest is in developing a statistical model that relates population dynamics to variables controllable by the planner. While, of necessity, this approach sacrifices some of the texture and explanatory power of the more complex empirical models, the end result allows for the incorporation of empirically based dynamics mechanism within a decision-support model, such as the one proposed in Antunes et al (2009). To this end, we develop a regression model where population dynamics is a function of natural growth (births minus deaths) and urban hierarchy (designation) variables.…”