A mega-analysis of personality prediction: Robustness and boundary conditions.

Abstract

Decades of studies identify personality traits as prospectively associated with life outcomes. However, previous investigations of personality characteristic-outcome associations have not taken a principled approach to covariate use or other sampling strategies to ensure the robustness of personality-outcome associations. The result is that it is unclear (a) whether personality characteristics are associated with important outcomes after accounting for a range of background variables, (b) for whom and when personality-outcome associations hold, and (c) that background variables are most important to account for. The present study examines the robustness and boundary conditions of personality-outcome associations using prospective Big Five associations with 14 health, social, education/work, and societal outcomes across eight different person-and study-level moderators using individual participant data from 171,395 individuals across 10 longitudinal panel studies in a mega-analytic framework. Robustness and boundary conditions were systematically tested using two approaches: propensity score matching and specification curve analysis. Three findings emerged: First, personality characteristics remain robustly associated with later life outcomes. Second, the effects generalize, as there are few moderators of personality-outcome associations. Third, robustness was differential across covariate choice in nearly half of the tested models, with the inclusion or exclusion of some of these flipping the direction of association. In summary, personality characteristics are robustly associated with later life outcomes with few moderated associations. However, researchers still need to be careful in their choices of covariates. We discuss how these findings can inform studies of personality-outcome associations, as well as recommendations for covariate inclusion.

Childhood temperament and adulthood personality differentially predict life outcomes

“…If childhood and adult personality traits equivalently predict future life outcomes, this would suggest the mechanisms linking traits measured at distinct points of individuals’ lives operate similarly and, ultimately, yield equal predictions of future outcomes. In support of this perspective, both childhood and adulthood personality assessments predict similar outcomes 5 , 6 , 8 , 11 .…”

“…Since this trait was in fact reported on by parents in our study, its prominence in predicting outcomes could reflect the parents’ concern with managing the child’s behavior and avoiding parent–child conflict, thus perhaps over-reporting on or emphasizing this quality in their child. Agreeableness as a personality trait is related to outcomes in various domains, including interpersonal, social, and health outcomes 11 , 38 – 40 so it is not entirely surprising this possible childhood precursor of agreeableness is related to a vast number of outcomes as well. Furthermore, one empirically derived personality taxonomy for children, the Hierarchical Personality Inventory for Children (HiPIC 41 ), found that compliance represented a blend of benevolence and, more interestingly, conscientiousness.…”

The transition to grandparenthood: No consistent evidence for change in the Big Five personality traits and life satisfaction

“…This is necessary because pre-existing differences between prospective grandparents and non-grandparents in variables related to the development of the Big Five or life satisfaction introduce confounding bias when estimating the effects of the transition to grandparenthood (VanderWeele et al, 2020). The impact of adjusting for pre-existing differences was recently emphasized in predicting life outcomes from personality (Beck & Jackson, 2022). Propensity score matching is one technique to account for confounding bias by equating groups in their estimated propensity to experience the event (Thoemmes & Kim, 2011).…”

Compensatory couple effects: How a spouse’s life goals impact one’s own career and health outcomes

“…Like life goals, personality traits are relatively stable constructs that influence how a person perceives and interacts with people and their environment (Bleidorn et al, 2022;. Moreover, personality traits are also robustly associated with many life outcomes (Beck & Jackson, 2022;Ozer & Benet-Martinez, 2006). Examining the mechanisms responsible for linking personality with life outcomes can yield insight into why life goals are associated with life outcomes.…”