No abstract

data files, results, and code used to conduct the analyses in this manuscript as well as a number of additional analyses referenced in footnotes in the manuscript. A web application (https://emoriebeck.shinyapps.io/pairs_graphicalvar/) contains visualizations of the more than 700 networks constructed in the analyses.

Preregistration clarifies the distinction between planned and unplanned research by reducing unnoticed flexibility. This improves credibility of findings and calibration of uncertainty. However, making decisions before conducting analyses requires practice. During report writing, respecting both what was planned and what actually happened requires good judgment and humility in making claims.

Since its beginnings, personality psychology has focused on both nomothetic and idiographic questions, but nomothetic approaches have captured the majority of attention in the past century. In this article, we demonstrate how recent measurement and modeling techniques provide an avenue for testing idiographic propositions about the dynamic features of a personality system. Findings indicate that people have unique structures of personality and that these structures are sensitive to situations people encounter. At the same time, these unique, mutable systems show longitudinal consistency for some but not all people.

Decades of studies identify personality traits as prospectively associated with life outcomes. However, previous investigations of personality characteristic-outcome associations have not taken a principled approach to covariate use or other sampling strategies to ensure the robustness of personality-outcome associations. The result is that it is unclear (a) whether personality characteristics are associated with important outcomes after accounting for a range of background variables, (b) for whom and when personality-outcome associations hold, and (c) that background variables are most important to account for. The present study examines the robustness and boundary conditions of personality-outcome associations using prospective Big Five associations with 14 health, social, education/work, and societal outcomes across eight different person-and study-level moderators using individual participant data from 171,395 individuals across 10 longitudinal panel studies in a mega-analytic framework. Robustness and boundary conditions were systematically tested using two approaches: propensity score matching and specification curve analysis. Three findings emerged: First, personality characteristics remain robustly associated with later life outcomes. Second, the effects generalize, as there are few moderators of personality-outcome associations. Third, robustness was differential across covariate choice in nearly half of the tested models, with the inclusion or exclusion of some of these flipping the direction of association. In summary, personality characteristics are robustly associated with later life outcomes with few moderated associations. However, researchers still need to be careful in their choices of covariates. We discuss how these findings can inform studies of personality-outcome associations, as well as recommendations for covariate inclusion.