A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index

Krishnamurthy, P. Krishna; Lewis, Kirsty; Choularton, Richard

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.11.004

Cited by 124 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…This paper presents a method for calculating future projections of the experimental Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index (HCVI), originally presented in Krishnamurthy et al (2014). The HCVI is a scaled country-level index which provides a relative measure of vulnerability to food insecurity (referred to as VFI from here on) as a result of climate-related hazards.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index (HCVI; Krishnamurthy et al 2014) was developed as a novel approach to address this knowledge gap. The index provides a country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate events by combining information about exposure to present-day climate hazards (such as floods, droughts and storms) and food security relevant measures of sensitivity and adaptive capacity (more detail is provided in Section 2).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

et al. 2018

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Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers (www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index).

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

et al. 2018

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“…between farmers or between fishermen). Also, the study does not 'statistically' account for the directionality of the relationship between indicators and vulnerability, although previous studies assume both exposure and sensitivity indicators to be positively correlated with vulnerability Krishnamurthy et al 2014). The weighting method applied constitutes less burden and time constraint on respondents and enabled us to avoid any complications that may result from experts' inability to reach agreements over roles of indicators/baskets in vulnerability outcomes.…”

Section: Limitations Of the Cwcvi Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climatewater conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climateconflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the southeastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

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“…assessments [3,4], researchers have proposed and applied a set or composite of proxy indicators to quantify the vulnerability [5,6]. Composite indices are analytical, communicative and collaborative tools which help to raise awareness, support decision making, facilitate planning and policy development through improved understanding of a complex multidimensional problem [7,8].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fifty-five percent of Indian farmers rely on rainfed systems in which 'delayed, deficient or erratic rains' lead to a severe decline in productivity [32,33]. Another stressor, climate change, affects weather patterns, availability of water, temperature and soil moisture, thereby resulting in low crop yields and degraded land with increased sensitivity of food-insecure households [3]. To change the situation of these rainfed areas, the Government of India initiated WDPs in 1973-74.…”

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confidence: 99%

Sensitivity analysis of a climate vulnerability index - a case study from Indian watershed development programmes

Sathyan

Funk

Aenis

et al. 2018

Clim Chang Responses

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Background: This paper presents a detailed analysis of a composite Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) to examine and compare climate change vulnerability and its dimensions adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure. Thereby, we are mainly interested on climate change vulnerability at community-level watershed development programmes and how the different implementing agencies could help to address the problems associated with climate change in future planning and implementation. Method: The primary data used for this study was obtained from household surveys (n = 215) in three watershed communities of Kerala, India. We use bootstrap sampling and a leave-one-out sensitivity analysis to compare the climate vulnerability of the three examined watersheds in detail. By introducing the bootstrapping method and sensitivity analysis into the research field of climate vulnerability, the paper describes significant differences in CVI values and the influencing indicators to the overall vulnerability at the watershed community level. Results:The results show that there are significant differences in the exposure and sensitivity dimensions of vulnerability even if the overall CVI shows less variability and no significant differences among the three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis emphasizes that 'Livelihood Strategies' and 'Social Network' are the most influencing major components of vulnerability. This suggests that implementing agencies should focus on these two major components in order to improve the watershed development programmes. Conclusion:The bootstrapping approach is transferable to evaluate the degree of influence of indicators on a composite index like the CVI. Moreover, it allows us to evaluate the potential effectiveness of various other climate change programmes where the evaluation is commonly done by field surveys. This thereby helps to increase the credibility in the examination of the impacts of climate change at different scales in order to find key areas for better policy planning.

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A methodological framework for rapidly assessing the impacts of climate risk on national-level food security through a vulnerability index

Cited by 124 publications

References 37 publications

Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Sensitivity analysis of a climate vulnerability index - a case study from Indian watershed development programmes

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