A micro-level analysis of firearm arrests’ effects on gun violence in Houston, Texas

Wu, Ling; Wells, William M.

doi:10.1007/s10708-016-9742-y

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Unlike the findings in Wyant et al (2012) though, the space-time distance of those effects were observed at larger distance and temporal bins across the crime types, more frequently at 2,000 feet and 21 days or more, compared to only around 1,000 feet and a few days for Wyant et al (2012). This is also counter to the findings in Wu and Wells (2016), who only find evidence of a deterrent effect on shootings for arrests in a smaller space-time window.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 91%

“…Finally, two studies have examined the impact of arrest strategies on subsequent gun crimes (Wu & Wells, 2016;Wyant et al, 2012). In a study of over 5,000 firearm arrests and shootings in Philadelphia, Wyant et al (2012) demonstrated using a modified bivariate Knox-test that following an arrest, firearm shootings within 800 feet and 4 days were lowered by about 28%.…”

Section: Crime Prevention Based On Near Repeatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Breaking the chain: How arrests reduce the probability of near repeat crimes

Wheeler¹,

Riddell²,

Haberman³

2019

Preprint

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Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat crime patterns in Dallas, Texas and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of future crime. Method: Using open source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July 2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies, residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20% to 40% reductions in a near repeat follow up crime.Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings, arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.Code to replicate the analysis can be found at:https://www.dropbox.com/sh/72q0i7wm60ndqve/AABgFB8zwGHG6xjExvaD01EGa?dl=0.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 91%

Section: Crime Prevention Based On Near Repeatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Breaking the chain: How arrests reduce the probability of near repeat crimes

Wheeler¹,

Riddell²,

Haberman³

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Unlike the findings in Wyant et al (2012) though, the space–time distance of those effects were observed at larger distance and temporal bins across the crime types, more frequently at 2,000 ft and 21 days or more, compared to only around 1,000 ft and a few days for Wyant et al (2012). This is also counter to the findings in Wu and Wells (2016), who only find evidence of a deterrent effect on shootings for arrests in a smaller space–time window.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 90%

“…In a study of over 5,000 firearm arrests and shootings in Philadelphia, Wyant et al (2012) demonstrated using a modified bivariate Knox test that following an arrest, firearm shootings within 800 ft and 4 days were lowered by about 28%. In a replication study in Houston, Wu and Wells (2016) find more mixed results, although they do detect fewer shootings than expected at 400 ft and 4 days after the arrest.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…Third, two studies have examined the impact of arrest strategies on subsequent gun crimes (Wu & Wells, 2016; Wyant et al, 2012). In a study of over 5,000 firearm arrests and shootings in Philadelphia, Wyant et al (2012) demonstrated using a modified bivariate Knox test that following an arrest, firearm shootings within 800 ft and 4 days were lowered by about 28%.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Breaking the Chain: How Arrests Reduce the Probability of Near Repeat Crimes

Wheeler¹,

Riddell

Haberman

2021

Criminal Justice Review

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Objectives: Near repeat patterns have been identified for a host of different crimes, but effective strategies to reduce near repeats have had more variable results. This study identifies near repeat crime patterns in Dallas, TX, and examines the effects of an arrest on reducing the probability of future crime. Method: Using open-source crime data from the Dallas Police Department from July 2014 through June 2018, we identified near repeat patterns for shootings, interpersonal robberies, residential burglaries, and thefts from motor vehicles. Logistic regression models were used to test the effect of an arrest on reducing near repeat crimes; controls for geographic, demographic, and temporal factors were included in each model. Results: Near repeat calculations suggest violent crime clustered closely in time and space, with property crime dispersed over larger spatial and temporal dimensions. Across all four crime types, findings suggest arrests resulted in 20%–40% reductions in a near repeat follow-up crime. Conclusions: In line with past research on shootings, arrests reduced the likelihood of subsequent crimes. This suggests policing strategies to increase arrests may be a fruitful way to reduce near repeat crime patterns.

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