A Microsimulation Model to Study the Interaction between Fertility and Union Formation and Dissolution: An Application to Canada and Quebec

Bélanger, Alain; Morency, Jean-Dominique; Spielauer, Martin

doi:10.25336/p6d047

Cited by 10 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Le Bourdais and Lapierre-Adamcyk (2004) conclude that while the rest of Canada is at the stage where cohabitation is largely seen as an avenue to test relationships and a form of conjugal life that is predominantly childless, Quebec has entered the stage at which cohabitation is socially acceptable, and becoming a parent is no longer restricted to marriage; cohabitation may even be a substitute or an alternative to marriage (see also Kerr, Moyser, and Beaujot 2006). Bélanger, Morency, and Spielauer (2010) find that, for cohorts born after 1955, 37 percent of Quebec births take place in common-law unions, compared to 11 percent in the rest of Canada.…”

Section: Family Policies In Quebec and The Rest Of Canada 223mentioning

confidence: 97%

Family Policies in Quebec and the Rest of Canada: Implications for Fertility, Child-Care, Women’s Paid Work, and Child Development Indicators

Beaujot

Ravanera

2013

Canadian Public Policy

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Étant donné sa situation démographique particulière, et sa volonté de choisir lui-même son avenir, le Québec a adopté, avec le temps, des politiques familiales très différentes de celles du reste du Canada. Le Québec utilisant le droit civil (plutôt que le common law comme ailleurs au pays), le mariage n'y a pas le même caractère que dans les autres provinces, et d'autres formes d'unions y existent depuis assez longtemps. La popularité croissante de l'union libre ou union de fait (« cohabitation » en anglais) ainsi que l'attention plus importante portée aux questions familiales ont amené le Québec à se donner un modèle nordique alors que le reste du Canada a un modèle libéral. Les programmes québécois en matière de garde des enfants (depuis 1977) et de congés parentaux (depuis 2006) sont par exemple très différents de ce que l'on retrouve dans les autres provinces. Le modèle nordique a aussi permis au Québec d'éviter une fécondité particulièrement faible. Ses politiques en matière de garde d'enfants ont été conçues à la fois pour améliorer le bien-être des enfants et pour favoriser l'emploi des femmes. Les comparaisons que nous avons faites entre le Québec et d'autres provinces indiquent que l'emploi rémunéré chez les femmes a profité de ces mesures; en ce qui a trait aux indicateurs de développement des enfants, les conclusions sont moins positives -cela est peut-être dû aux faits que des programmes universels ne permettent pas de se consacrer autant qu'il le faudrait aux enfants de milieux défavorisés, chez lesquels une intervention précoce a beaucoup plus d'impact.

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Section: Family Policies In Quebec and The Rest Of Canada 223mentioning

confidence: 97%

Family Policies in Quebec and the Rest of Canada: Implications for Fertility, Child-Care, Women’s Paid Work, and Child Development Indicators

Beaujot

Ravanera

2013

Canadian Public Policy

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“…5 In family science, applications range from modelling family and kinship networks (e.g., Wachter 1997;Tomassini and Wolf 2000;Murphy 2004Murphy , 2011Zagheni 2011) and human reproduction and fecundity (Ridley and Sheps 1966) to contraceptive behaviour (Thomas et al 2017). Currently, only a few microsimulations focus on family-building issues, including FAMSIM (Lutz 1997;Spielauer and Vencatasawmy 2001) for the evaluation of family policies, an extension of the MicMac model to mate-matching and couple dynamics (Zinn 2011(Zinn , 2012(Zinn , 2017, and several applications of RiskPaths (Spielauer 2009a(Spielauer , 2009b on the interaction of fertility and union processes (Spielauer, Kostova, and Koytcheva 2007;Bélanger, Morency, and Spielauer 2010;Thomson et al 2012;Spielauer and Dupriez 2017).…”

Section: Microsimulation Of Family Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, Thomson et al (2012) study the implications of changes in union formation and dissolution for fertility in France. They model the reciprocal relationships between partnership and birth history in much greater detail than Bélanger, Morency, and Spielauer (2010), incorporating not only current parity or partnership status but also detailed combinations of current and past union status at birth. However, Thomson et al (2012) consider all partnerships together, ignoring differences between marital and nonmarital unions for childbearing timing and partnership stability.…”

Section: Microsimulation Of Family Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We develop a dynamic, continuous-time, single-sex (women only), 6 competing risk microsimulation model, comparable to that employed by Thomson et al (2012), but additionally differentiating between marriage and unmarried cohabitation as in Bélanger, Morency, and Spielauer (2010). The state-space representation of the model is sketched in Figure 1.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The simulation model is implemented in Modgen, a generic microsimulation programming language developed and maintained at Statistics Canada (2009). The model is an expanded variant of the RiskPath model (Spielauer 2009a,b), 8 which has also been the building block for Thomson et al (2012) and Bélanger, Morency, and Spielauer (2010). Details of the microsimulation technique are provided in Appendix A.…”

Section: Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden

Winkler-Dworak¹,

Beaujouan²,

Giulio³

et al. 2021

DemRes

Self Cite

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Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

2022

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In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

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A Microsimulation Model to Study the Interaction between Fertility and Union Formation and Dissolution: An Application to Canada and Quebec

Abstract: Union formation and dissolution are among the main determinants explaining variations in fertility. Compared to the rest of Canada

Cited by 10 publications

References 20 publications

Family Policies in Quebec and the Rest of Canada: Implications for Fertility, Child-Care, Women’s Paid Work, and Child Development Indicators

Family Policies in Quebec and the Rest of Canada: Implications for Fertility, Child-Care, Women’s Paid Work, and Child Development Indicators

Simulating family life courses: An application for Italy, Great Britain, Norway, and Sweden

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

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