Union formation and dissolution are among the main determinants explaining variations in fertility. Compared to the rest of Canada

This paper aims to give an overview of trends regarding the fertility of Aboriginal people in Canada at the turn of the 21st century (mostly between 1996 and 2011). Total fertility rates and fertility rates by age group are presented for the Aboriginal population as a whole, but also for First Nations, Métis, and Inuit, as well as for the population with Registered Indian status, using various data sources (past censuses, National Household Survey, vital statistics, and Indian Register). Results of a multivariate analysis are presented. This multivariate analysis is conducted in order to improve our understanding of the dynamic behind the fertility behaviour of the Aboriginal population.

New data linkages between censuses show that migration flows between Indian reserves and off-reserve areas from 2006 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2016 resulted in negative net migration for Indian reserves, meaning that—overall—more people left Indian reserves than entered them. These results differ from the portrait shown by the retrospective information from the 2011 and 2016 censuses, which indicates positive net migration for Indian reserves. A comparison of the information in the two sources revealed two types of inconsistencies that contributed to the observed differences: (1) inconsistencies in migrant status, and (2) inconsistencies in the origin location of migrants, i.e., the retrospective information about a migrant’s place of residence 5 years earlier does not match the place where the migrant was enumerated in the previous census. Results from this paper suggest that there are limitations to using retrospective information on the place of residence 5 years prior to a census to derive estimates of internal migration flows for small geographic areas, such as Indian reserves. New data linkages are a source of information that can be used to validate and improve these estimates, as well as to derive alternative estimates. However, data linkages also have limitations and require careful preparation before use, particularly when it comes to calculating weights to accurately account for unlinked records.

Studies on the relationship between state policy and fertility usually seek to evaluate the impact of one or more measures on fertility. This article does not aim to focus on the impact of one measure in particular, or of public measures as a whole, on fertility, but rather on the way in which Canadian couples that are likely to have a first child react to the environment created by the state and the labour market. We use data from a prospective longitudinal survey of households conducted by Statistics Canada - Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics. We focus on couples in which both spouses are wage-earners before the birth of their first child. Our results show that few factors have a noticeable impact. The decision leading to the first birth appears to be governed by two different mechanisms - depending on whether or not the couple’s income is modest. When the family income is modest, the decision is based on the amount of recurrent financial support ; when the family income is average, the decision is based instead on the amount of maternity benefits that will compensate for the loss of income during maternity leave. In all cases, the female spouse’s permanent employment plays a decisive role. Ownership of the family residence also plays an important role. To sum up, the decision to have a first child appears to depend, above all, on the female spouse’s financial and employment circumstances and on the couple’s evaluation of what the family’s financial situation will be once the child is born.

Les études sur la relation entre l’action publique et la fécondité cherchent habituellement à mesurer l’effet d’une ou plusieurs mesures sur la fécondité. Dans cet article, nous ne nous intéressons ni à l’effet d’une mesure en particulier, ni à l’effet de l’action publique dans son ensemble sur la fécondité, mais plutôt à la manière dont les couples canadiens susceptibles d’avoir le premier enfant réagissent à l’environnement que créent l’État et le marché du travail. Nous utilisons des données qui proviennent d’une enquête longitudinale prospective auprès des ménages menée par Statistique Canada, l’Enquête sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu. Nos résultats montrent que peu de facteurs ont un effet appréciable. Il semble que la décision qui conduit à la première naissance soit régie par deux mécanismes différents, selon que le revenu du couple est modeste ou non. Lorsque le revenu familial est modeste, la décision repose sur le montant des aides financières récurrentes ; lorsque le revenu est moyen, la décision repose plutôt sur le montant des prestations de maternité qui compensent la perte de revenu pendant le congé de maternité. Dans tous les cas, l’emploi permanent de la conjointe joue un rôle déterminant. La propriété de la résidence familiale joue également un rôle important. La décision d’avoir le premier enfant semble donc dépendre avant tout de la condition de la conjointe et de l’évaluation que le couple fait de ce que sera la situation financière de la famille une fois l’enfant né.