A model for COVID-19 with isolation, quarantine and testing as control measures

Aronna, M. Soledad; Guglielmi, Roberto; Moschen, Lucas M.

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100437

Cited by 53 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Menurut WHO, lontaran droplet bisa mencapai 1 meter sehingga jarak yang direkomendasikan antara satu orang dengan orang lain sepanjang 2 meter dengan waktu kurang dari 45 menit agar resiko tertular rendah (Kemenkes RI, 2020). Seseorang yang terinfeksi virus corona memiliki gejala umum seperti demam, batuk, dan sesak napas (Aronna et al, 2021). Berdasarkan data Covid-19 sejak pertama kali ditemukan di Indonesia hingga 31 Desember 2020, jumlah positif Covid-19 sebanyak 743.198 pasien, sebanyak 611.097 pasien sembuh, dan sebanyak 22.138 pasien meninggal dunia akibat Covid-19 (Verdiana, 2020).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Hubungan Tren Bersepeda dimasa Pandemi Covid-19 dengan Imunitas Tubuh Lansia

Deniati

Annisaa

2021

SSH

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The number of positive incidents, mortality and mortality due to Covid-19 is getting higher. In 2020, around 76.7% of elderly people died because of Covid-19 from the total number of patients who died due to Covid-19. This increasing number is not in line with the activity of cycling trends that were rife during the Covid-19 pandemic. So that there is a mismatch with the principles of health sports, namely sports to improve the health status of sports players. Therefore, this study is important to do to determine the relationship between cycling trends during the pandemic and increased immunity, especially for the elderly. The research method used is a literature review of various research articles that have been published in various journals indexed by Google Scholar, Research Gate, Scopus, and PubMed. The articles reviewed were articles related to cycling and the immunity of the elderly during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the analysis of the articles that have been done, there is a relationship between cycling and the immunity of the elderly. However, the SARS CoV-2 virus can infect healthy people without symptoms which then spreads to the elderly and causes high cases of mortality in the elderly. So that it requires active participation by all parties to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and improve the immune system in the midst of a pandemic with cycling. Abstrak: Angka kejadian positif, mordibitas, dan mortalitas akibat Covid-19 semakin tinggi. Pada tahun 2020 terdapat sekitar 76,7% lansia yang meninggal karena Covid-19 dari total keseluruhan pasien meninggal akibat Covid-19. Angka yang semakin naik tersebut tidak sejalan dengan aktifitas tren bersepeda yang marak diminati saat pandemi Covid-19. Sehingga terdapat ketidaksesuaian dengan prinsip olahraga kesehatan yaitu olahraga untuk meningkatkan derajat kesehatan bagi pelaku olahraga. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini penting dilakukan untuk mengetahui adanya hubungan antara tren bersepeda dimasa pandemi terhadap peningkatan imunitas tubuh khususnya bagi lansia. Metode penelitian yang digunakan yaitu review literatur dari berbagai artikel penelitian yang telah terpublikasi dalam berbagai jurnal yang terindeks Google Cendekia, Research Gate, Scopus, dan PubMed. Artikel yang direview yaitu artikel yang berhubungan dengan olahraga bersepeda dan imunitas tubuh lansia dimasa pandemi Covid-19. Berdasarkan analisis artikel yang telah dilakukan, terdapat hubungan antara olahraga bersepeda dengan imunitas tubuh lansia. Namun, virus SARS CoV-2 dapat menjangkit pada orang sehat tanpa gejala yang kemudian menyebar ke lansia dan menyebabkan tingginya kasus mortalitas pada lansia. Sehingga diperlukan partisipasi aktif oleh semua pihak untuk mencegah penyebaran Covid-19 dan meningkatkan sistem imunitas tubuh di tengah pandemi dengan olahraga bersepeda.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Hubungan Tren Bersepeda dimasa Pandemi Covid-19 dengan Imunitas Tubuh Lansia

Deniati

Annisaa

2021

SSH

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“…The same is done in [22], where symptomatic and asymptomatic compartments are split again into detected and undetected compartments, respectively. In [23], the S, E, I, and A (asymptomatic) compartments are split into active and self-isolating (or social distancing) compartments for an investigation, showing how effective several different countermeasures are.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extension of SEIR Compartmental Models for Constructive Lyapunov Control of COVID-19 and Analysis in Terms of Practical Stability

2021

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Due to the worldwide outbreak of COVID-19, many strategies and models have been put forward by researchers who intend to control the current situation with the given means. In particular, compartmental models are being used to model and analyze the COVID-19 dynamics of different considered populations as Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered compartments (SEIR). This study derives control-oriented compartmental models of the pandemic, together with constructive control laws based on the Lyapunov theory. The paper presents the derivation of new vaccination and quarantining strategies, found using compartmental models and design methods from the field of Lyapunov theory. The Lyapunov theory offers the possibility to track desired trajectories, guaranteeing the stability of the controlled system. Computer simulations aid to demonstrate the efficacy of the results. Stabilizing control laws are obtained and analyzed for multiple variants of the model. The stability, constructivity, and feasibility are proven for each Lyapunov-like function. Obtaining the proof of practical stability for the controlled system, several interesting system properties such as herd immunity are shown. On the basis of a generalized SEIR model and an extended variant with additional Protected and Quarantined compartments, control strategies are conceived by using two fundamental system inputs, vaccination and quarantine, whose influence on the system is a crucial part of the model. Simulation results prove that Lyapunov-based approaches yield effective control of the disease transmission.

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“…Similar model studying slightly different features was introduced recently in [ 3 ], where they exhibit a series of simulations and compare different levels of isolation and testing. They conclude, as expected, that isolation (social distancing) and testing among asymptomatic cases are fundamental actions to control the epidemic, and the stricter these measures are and the sooner they are implemented, the more effective they are in flattening the curve of infections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

et al. 2021

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We present an epidemiological model, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the presence of asymptomatic individuals and the effect of isolation of infected individuals based on testing. Moreover, we introduce two types of home quarantine, namely gradual and abrupt one. We compute the equilibria of the new model and derive its reproduction number. Using numerical simulations we analyze the effect of quarantine and testing on the epidemic dynamic. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. Our simulations show that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. Finally, based on the effective reproduction number we suggest a strategy to manage the epidemic. It consists in introducing abrupt quarantine as well as relaxing the quarantine in such a way that the epidemic remains under control and further waves do not occur. We analyze the sensitivity of the model dynamic to the quarantine size, timing and strength of the restrictions.

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A model for COVID-19 with isolation, quarantine and testing as control measures

Cited by 53 publications

References 42 publications

Hubungan Tren Bersepeda dimasa Pandemi Covid-19 dengan Imunitas Tubuh Lansia

Hubungan Tren Bersepeda dimasa Pandemi Covid-19 dengan Imunitas Tubuh Lansia

Extension of SEIR Compartmental Models for Constructive Lyapunov Control of COVID-19 and Analysis in Terms of Practical Stability

Effect of Quarantine Strategies in a Compartmental Model with Asymptomatic Groups

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