A Model for Predicting Integrated Man-Machine System Reliability. Model Logic and Description.

Abstract

A previously developed man-machine model which is capable of simulating closed man-machine systems operated by crews of from 4 to 20 members was substantially modified so as to allow its use for system reliability and system availability predictive purposes. The resultant new model is capable of generating new system availability and reliability measures based on human and equipment performance resulting from the computer simulation runs. A description of the revised computer model including the changes is presented, together with the model flowchart and user information. The degree of success in producing rational output achieved during a set of basic runs using the revised model and program is discussed.

Applications of Human Performance Reliability Evaluation Concepts and Demonstration Guidelines

“…The details of the model (including model flow, variable descriptions, computational logic, and output descriptions) are found in Siegel, Wolf, and Lautman (1974) and in Siegel, Wolf, and Fischl (1969).…”

“…Reasonable and useful degrees of correspondence have been found between simulation output and actual Fleet data in a number of actual situations including Viet Nam river patrols (Siegel, Wolf, & Cosentino, 1971), trust territory reconnaissance by patrol gunboat class Navy ships (Siegel, Lautman, & Wolf, 1972) and sonar systems operating on DE1052 (Knox) class destroyer-escort vessels (Siegel, Wolf, & Williams, 1976).…”

Human reliability data requirements

“…The second new HRA direction in the 1970s utilized digital simulation technology [13]. This approach survives to the current day, with techniques such as maintenance personnel performance simulator (MAPPS) [13], and Micro-Saint [14], capable of being used in HRAs. However, simulations need data on Human reliability data requirements 27 performance distributions for tasks (e.g.…”