A Model of Optimal Interval for Anti-Mosquito Campaign Based on Stochastic Process

Abstract

Mosquito control is very important, in particular, for tropical countries. The purpose of mosquito control is to decrease the number of mosquitos such that the mosquitos transmitted diseases can be reduced. However, mosquito control can be costly, thus there is a trade-off between the cost for mosquito control and the cost for mosquitos transmitted diseases. A model is proposed based on renewal theory in this paper to describe the process of mosquitos’ growth, with consideration of the mosquitos transmitted diseases growth process and the corresponding diseases treatment cost. Through this model, the total mosquitos control cost of different strategies can be estimated. The optimal mosquito control strategy that minimizes the expected total cost is studied. A numerical example and corresponding sensitivity analyses are proposed to illustrate the applications.