A Monte Carlo adapted finite element method for dislocation simulation of faults with uncertain geometry

Abstract

Dislocation modelling of an earthquake fault is of great importance due to the fact that ground surface response may be predicted by the model. However, geological features of a fault cannot be measured exactly, and therefore these features and data involve uncertainties. This paper presents a Monte Carlo based random model of faults with finite element method incorporating split node technique to impose the effects of discontinuities. Length and orientation of the fault are selected as random parameters in the domain model, and hence geometrical uncertainties are encountered. Mean and standard deviation values, as well as probability density function of ground surface responses due to the dislocation are computed. Based on analytical and numerical calculation of dislocation, two approaches of Monte Carlo simulations are proposed. Various comparisons are examined to illustrate the capability of both methods for random simulation of faults.

Multi‐scenario Interpretations From Sparse Fault Evidence Using Graph Theory and Geological Rules

“…Indeed, geological observations and geophysical signals often have an incomplete spatial coverage and nonunique interpretations due to a lack of resolution or physical ambiguities (Wellmann & Caumon, 2018). As a result, structural uncertainty often affects fundamental research on Earth's structure such as, for example, the understanding of rift development and earthquake processes (Gombert et al, 2018;Mai et al, 2017;Ragon et al, 2018;Riesner et al, 2017;Sepúlveda et al, 2017;Tal et al, 2018;Zakian et al, 2017). Faults are important elements of such studies because they have distinct hydromechanical properties and because the accumulation of fault Freeman et al, 1990;Godefroy et al, 2019).…”

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