A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

Vicedo‐Cabrera, Ana M.; Sera, Francesco; Lee, Hyewon; Chung, Yeonseung; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Tong, Shilu; Tobías, Aurelio; Lavigne, Éric; Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento; Goodman, Patrick; Zeka, Ariana; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Ragettli, Martina S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2017.11.006

Cited by 146 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…From the 1960s and onwards, the AF on modestly hot days was basically zero, which may partially be explained by increasing MMT and changes in the temperature-mortality relationships over time. Our findings of declining heat AF over time are in line with a recent study of 305 locations in ten countries, where the authors reported declining heat-related AFs over time in seven countries (Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2018 ). Furthermore, Lee et al (2018) reported decreasing heat-related AF over time in Taiwan and Korea, whereas it increased in Japan.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…For all periods, mortality attributable to cold was higher than that of heat. Mortality on modestly cold days accounted for the majority of mortality attributed to non-optimal temperature, which is in line with other studies (Gasparrini et al 2015 ; Vicedo-Cabrera et al 2018 ; Lee et al 2018 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Cold-related AF peaked at 7.9% during the 1920s and 1930s, with more recent estimates of around 5.5% during the two latest periods of investigation. The magnitudes of the cold-related AFs, as well as the stable trend over time, show some similarities to those reported by Vicedo-Cabrera et al ( 2018 ), implying that trends in cold-related impacts remain unclear.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

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Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

et al. 2018

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Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901–2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future. More research is needed to enhance estimates of burdens related to cold and heat in the future.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s00484-018-1556-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

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Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

et al. 2018

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“…However, there is evidence that there was limited variation in summer temperatures over this period [36], a reality that is expected to change under current climate projections. Not all manuscripts indicated that heat would result in poorer health outcomes for the Irish population [35,37,38]. Vicedo-Cabrera et al [37] projected that excess deaths in Ireland may actually decrease due to the reduction in cold-related deaths when modelling projected changes in net excess mortality with a 1.5°C vs 2°C global mean temperature increase.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-health vulnerability in temperate climates: lessons and response options from Ireland

Paterson

Godsmark

2020

Global Health

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Background: In Ireland, rising temperatures remains the climate projection that national climate scientists associate with the highest degree of confidence. However, the health challenge of heat has been largely absent from Ireland's public health sector. This is epitomised by the lack of a comprehensive public health-focused heat-health action plan or country-specific codes of practice for heat-health when working outdoors. Our objective is to highlight the anticipated heat-health challenges in Ireland, and other temperate regions, through analysing vulnerable groups and systems, reinforcing the need to respond. Methods: A scoping literature review was conducted to determine how heat affects health of the vulnerable in temperate climatic regions, with a focus on Ireland. Additionally, national Google Trends data was coarsely analysed to determine whether heat is a growing societal concern. Results and discussion: The heat-vulnerable include: older people; chronically ill; infants, pregnant women, children; outdoor workers; socioeconomically disadvantaged; urban dwellers; food systems and the health sector. Google Trends data suggest an increase in heat-related health searches over time, demonstrating rising levels of concern to temperature increases, reinforcing a gap in national policy associated with communication of, and response to, the heat-health challenge. Specific, actionable recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies are proposed. Conclusion: Heat poses a public and occupational health challenge, receiving limited attention in Ireland. Lack of a coordinated effort, places vulnerable populations at risk. Our recommendations, with reference to vulnerable groups and acknowledging the multi-sectoral nature of heat-health and climate change, advocate for the adoption of a "health and climate change in all policies" approach and the development of a public health-focused heathealth action plan.

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“…One of the main expected effects of climate change is associated with changes in temperature and extreme weather disturbances that seriously affect the ecosystem, biodiversity, and agro-food production [48,49]; there is a direct ecological and socioeconomic impact on human activities, the health of the human and animal population [50], and animal acclimation response in their adaptation processes [51]. Adaptive process in dairy cattle develops metabolic and behavioral physiological compensatory mechanisms to reduce the adverse effects of climate related to the region's racial genotype [52,53]. The risk of suffering thermal stress is increased in the animal population in certain regions with negative effects on livestock production and animal welfare [54,55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

In vitroEvaluation of the Phagocytosis Activity of Neutrophils and Characterization ofStaphylococcus aureusMastitis in Dairy Cows of Small Family Farms

Montoya-Garcia¹,

García-Gama²,

Cuadros³

et al. 2019

Milk Production, Processing and Marketing

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A total of 269 cows in small family herds in the central region of México from different municipalities of México State were studied. Composed milk samples were obtained to detect subclinical mastitis and S. aureus infection and for characterization of phenotypes as follows: biotypes, capsular exopolysaccharide 5 and 8, ORSA/MRSA and MRSA strains; and in vitro phagocytosis neutrophil activity and apoptosis by S. aureus serotype 5. Results were evaluated by estimating proportions and chi-square test (p < 0.05). The microbial isolation rate was 46%; S. aureus isolation rate was 23.4-21.0% among cow herds; 39% of microbial isolates were in 1500-2500 cells/mL, with Wisconsin test. The phenotypes of S. aureus were: biotypes A and C are identified frequently that produce alpha and beta-hemolysin toxins, and a smaller proportion other hemolysins types. S. aureus isolates capsular serotypes 5 and 8 show differences in the in vitro neutrophil phagocytosis activity and apoptosis. The ORSA/MRSA isolates show that MRSA strains' mec A gene was confirmed by PCR. The S. aureus infection level in the dairy cow herds shows a wide municipal distribution, identifying different S. aureus pathotypes enclosed to virulence factors and MRSA to establish a potential health risk in small dairy cow herds in México.

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A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

Cited by 146 publications

References 26 publications

Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden

Heat-health vulnerability in temperate climates: lessons and response options from Ireland

In vitroEvaluation of the Phagocytosis Activity of Neutrophils and Characterization ofStaphylococcus aureusMastitis in Dairy Cows of Small Family Farms

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