A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin, Myanmar

Ghimire, Uttam; Babel, Mukand S.; Shrestha, Sangam; Srinivasan, G.

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02444-3

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Similar to these findings, a recent study by Ghimire et al (2019) also shows that north and north-eastern parts of the Irrawaddy Basin may experience 16-20% and 21-28% increments in precipitation during the 2040s and 2080s, respectively, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (compared to their baseline period of . Over the Belu River Basin (a small basin adjacent to the eastern part of IRB), Myanmar, the average precipitation is projected to vary with no clear trends (−1.8-9.1%, range of values from four RCPs: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) (Aung et al, 2016).…”

Section: Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Many studies have predicted a wide range of climate changedriven impacts on streamflow (Thompson et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2015;Shrestha and Lohpaisankrit, 2017;Ghimire et al, 2019;Xu et al, 2019), and sediment erosion and load (Maharjan et al, 2014;Azim et al, 2016;Kim et al, 2017;Zhou et al, 2017;Nilawar and Waikar, 2019). Furthermore, recent studies have reported that many large rivers (viz., Yellow River, Yangtze River, Chao Phraya River, Pearl River, and Nile River) show a considerable reduction of sediment supply to the coast due to reservoirs and land-use change (Walling, 2009;Miao et al, 2011;Yang et al, 2015;Besset et al, 2019;Ranasinghe et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on 21st-Century Streamflow and Fluvial Sediment Loads in the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar

et al. 2021

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Reservoirs play a vital role in water resource management, while also contributing to alterations in downstream flow regimes and sediment load in the river. On the other hand, variations on streamflow and fluvial sediment loads can also result from climate change effects. Here, we assess future changes in streamflow and sediment load due to climate change and planned reservoirs in the Irrawaddy River Basin, Myanmar. The Soil Water Assessment Tool is used to project streamflow and sediment loads during 2046–2065 (mid-century), and 2081–2100 (end-century) periods under the two end-member Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) with and without planned reservoirs. Results show that compared to the baseline period (1991–2005), streamflow and sediment loads are projected to substantially increase during mid- and end-century periods when planned reservoirs are not considered (i.e., with climate change forcing only). Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, streamflow at the basin outlet is projected to increase by 8–17% and 9–45%, while sediment loads are projected to increase by 13–26% and 18–75%, respectively by the end-century period. When reservoirs are included, while annual streamflow at the basin outlet does not show a significant difference compared to the climate change only case (for any RCP and for both future time periods considered), annual sediment loads at the basin outlet are projected to slightly decrease (compared to the climate change only case) by 4–6% under RCP 8.5 during the end-century period. However, at seasonal time scales, streamflow and sediment loads at the basin outlet are significantly affected by upstream reservoirs. During the monsoon periods, the presence of planned reservoirs is projected to decrease streamflow at the basin outlet by 6–7%, while during non-monsoon periods, the reservoirs result in an increase of 32–38% in the streamflow at the outlet under RCP 8.5 during the end-century period. Similarly, for the same period and RCP 8.5, due to the planned reservoirs, sediment load is projected to decrease by 9–11% and increase by 32–44% in monsoonal and non-monsoonal periods, respectively.

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Section: Precipitationsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on 21st-Century Streamflow and Fluvial Sediment Loads in the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar

et al. 2021

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“…In 2018, flooding accounted for 50% of the total disaster-affected population globally [6]. Flood risks are expected to increase on the basis of climate change projections [7,8,9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Operational Concept of a Flood-Resilient Urban Community in Jakarta, Indonesia, from the Perspectives of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Development Agencies

Dwirahmadi

Rutherford

Phung

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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Climate change-related extreme events such as floods have and will continue to present a great challenge to disaster risk management. There is a pressing need to develop a robust management strategy via enhancing the resiliency of the community, particularly in the context of complex urban environments, like Jakarta. Resilience is conceptualized within specific contexts and uniquely tailored to the targeted setting, yet research regarding the operational concept of a flood-resilient community in the context of Jakarta remains limited. This paper will elaborate this operational concept through understanding the desirable features and influential barriers of a flood-resilient community through the lenses of three main stakeholder groups: disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and development. It will also discuss the ways in which the synergies that exist across these groups can be enhanced. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were applied in this study, and multiple sources of data were used. The findings indicate that these groups share common views regarding the importance of human aspects being central to resilience building efforts. We argue there is an urgent need to shift the flood resilience building paradigm towards building community resilience from the people and to apply a collaborative governance approach to facilitate effective partnership between the actors involved.

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“…During the end-century, precipitations from three GCMs are projected to vary between 7 % and 12% for RCP 2.6 and 8% to 31% for RCP 8.5 (compared to the base period). Similar to these findings, a recent study also shows that the upper Irrawaddy Basin (north and north-eastern parts of the study area) may experience an increase of precipitation of 16-20% in the 2040s and 21%-28% in 2080s (compared to their base period of 1975 to 2005) (Ghimire et al, 2019). Over the Belu River Basin (a small basin adjacent to the eastern part of the Irrawaddy RB), Myanmar, the average precipitation is projected to vary with no clear trends (-1.78% -9.14%).…”

Section: Sediment Loadsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…These estimated changes in future climate are expected to alter hydrological regimes of the basins. For South and Southeast Asia, many studies have predicted a wide range of climate change driven impacts on streamflow (e.g., Ghimire et al, 2019;Lirong and Jianyun, 2012;Shrestha and Htut, 2016a;Shrestha and Lohpaisankrit, 2017;Thompson et al, 2013;Wang, 2015;Xu et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2014), sediment erosion and load (e.g., Azim et al, 2016;Kim et al, 2017;Maharjan et al, 2014;Nilawar and Waikar, 2019;Shrestha et al, 2013;Zhou et al, 2017;Zhu et al, 2008), water quality (e.g., Whitehead et al, 2015), snow cover and glacier (e.g., Khadka et al, 2014;Lutz et al, 2014), evapotranspiration (e.g., Lu et al, 2018), water yield/ availability (e.g., Chanapathi et al, 2018;Deb et al, 2018;, water scarcity (e.g., Gosling and Arnell, 2016) through numerous numerical model simulations and/ or empirical relationships.…”

Section: Future Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Process based modelling of future variations in river flows and fluvial sediment supply to coasts due to climate change and human activities : data poor regions

Arachchillage¹,

Sirisena²

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One of the main, if not the main, source of sand to the coast is fluvial sediment supply. Any change in the sand supplied to the coast will disturb its equilibrium state, potentially leading to coastline recession (with a decrease in fluvial sediment supply) or coastline progradation (with an increase in fluvial sediment supply). Given ongoing human activities in basin areas (e.g., agriculture, hydropower dams, new/expanding human settlements) and climate change, many of the world's low elevation coastal zones are at risk of losing land and rich bio-diversity therein. In this context, hydrological model investigations are required to assess the impacts of climate change and relevant human activities on fluvial sediment supply to coasts. However, in data-poor areas, the standard approach of using a wellcalibrated/ validated process-based hydrological modelling for impact assessment is challenging due to the limited availability of observed data.The overarching objective of this study is to investigate how different modelling approaches and input data sources may influence projections of streamflow and fluvial sediment loads accounting for climate change and human activities, particularly in data-poor basins. In order to achieve this overarching objective, two case study sites were selected: Irrawaddy River Basin in Myanmar and Kalu River Basin in Sri Lanka. Compared to other major river systems in Southeast and South Asia, the main rivers of these two basins can be considered to be unregulated. However, future flow regimes in the two basins could change significantly due to proposed development activities. These changes can be further exacerbated due to impacts of the extreme weather conditions, which are quite frequently observed in these regions, and due to climate change effects.

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A multi-temporal analysis of streamflow using multiple CMIP5 GCMs in the Upper Ayerawaddy Basin, Myanmar

Cited by 15 publications

References 30 publications

Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on 21st-Century Streamflow and Fluvial Sediment Loads in the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar

Climate Change and Reservoir Impacts on 21st-Century Streamflow and Fluvial Sediment Loads in the Irrawaddy River, Myanmar

Understanding the Operational Concept of a Flood-Resilient Urban Community in Jakarta, Indonesia, from the Perspectives of Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Development Agencies

Process based modelling of future variations in river flows and fluvial sediment supply to coasts due to climate change and human activities : data poor regions

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