This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come. ARTICLE HISTORY
Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years. The extreme droughts of
Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 • C shift in seasonal temperature and 27 % (decrease) to 41 % (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17 % decrease to 66 % increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27 % decrease to about 160 % increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105 % in discharge and −88 to 243 % in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.
Abstract:Much of the discussion on hydrological trends and variability in the source region of the Yellow River centres on the mean values of the mainstream flows. Changes in hydrological extremes in the mainstream as well as in the tributary flows are largely unexplored. Although decreasing water availability has been noted, the nature of those changes is less explored. This article investigates trends and variability in the hydrological regimes (both mean values and extreme events) and their links with the local climate in the source region of the Yellow River over the last 50 years . This large catchment is relatively undisturbed by anthropogenic influences such as abstraction and impoundments, enabling the characterization of widely natural, climate-driven trends. A total of 27 hydrological variables were used as indicators for the analysis. Streamflow records from six major headwater catchments and climatic data from seven stations were studied. The trend results vary considerably from one river basin to another, and become more accentuated with longer time period. Overall, the source region of the Yellow River is characterized by an overall tendency towards decreasing water availability. Noteworthy are strong decreasing trends in the winter (dry season) monthly flows of January to March and September as well as in annual mean flow, annual 1-, 3-, 7-, 30-and 90-day maxima and minima flows for Maqu and Tangnag catchments over the period . The hydrological variables studied are closely related to precipitation in the wet season (June, July, August and September), indicating that the widespread decrease in wet season precipitation is expected to be associated with significant decrease in streamflow. To conclude, decreasing precipitation, particularly in the wet season, along with increasing temperature can be associated with pronounced decrease in water resources, posing a significant challenge to downstream water uses.
Abstract. Evaporation is a key process in the water cycle with implications ranging, inter alia, from water management to weather forecast and climate change assessments. The estimation of continental evaporation fluxes is complex and typically relies on continental-scale hydrological models or land-surface models. However, it appears that most global or continental-scale hydrological models underestimate evaporative fluxes in some regions of Africa, and as a result overestimate stream flow. Other studies suggest that landsurface models may overestimate evaporative fluxes. In this study, we computed actual evaporation for the African continent using a continental version of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which is based on a water balance approach. Results are compared with other independently computed evaporation products: the evaporation results from the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim and ERA-Land (both based on the energy balance approach), the MOD16 evaporation product, and the GLEAM product. Three other alternative versions of the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model were also considered. This resulted in eight products of actual evaporation, which were compared in distinct regions of the African continent spanning different climatic regimes. Annual totals, spatial patterns and seasonality were studied and compared through visual inspection and statistical methods. The comparison shows that the representation of irrigation areas has an insignificant contribution to the actual evaporation at a continental scale with a 0.5 • spatial resolution when averaged over the defined regions. The choice of meteorological forcing data has a larger effect on the evaporation results, especially in the case of the precipitation input as different precipitation input resulted in significantly different evaporation in some of the studied regions. ERA-Interim evaporation is generally the highest of the selected products followed by ERA-Land evaporation. In some regions, the satellite-based products (GLEAM and MOD16) show a different seasonal behaviour compared to the other products. The results from this study contribute to a better understanding of the suitability and the differences between products in each climatic region. Through an improved understanding of the causes of differences between these products and their uncertainty, this study provides information to improve the quality of evaporation products for the African continent and, consequently, leads to improved water resources assessments at regional scale.
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