This paper applies the end-effect mitigation models to build foresight into long-term infrastructure planning problems. This paper describes the phenomenon of end effects; presents four different models that address it, namely extended simulation, salvage value, and primal and dual equilibria; and applies them to long-term energy system planning problems with finite resources for investments. The planning model is a simultaneous multiperiod linear optimization model that plans for energy system infrastructures at the national scale. Two instances of this model are considered: 1) a small-scale five-node model; and 2) a medium-to-large-scale 13-node model. These instances are used to assess and quantify: 1) the end effects of using investment solutions; and 1) the efficacy of each mitigation methods in terms of accuracy and computational time. The illustrations demonstrate that, without attributing the long-term infrastructure planning with some level of foresight about the future cost and performance of the technologies, the resulting portfolio will have end effects in terms of: 1) investment bias toward low-cost resources at the end years; and 2) adopting low-cost quick fixes (such as excess cofiring) to meet near-term emission targets, both of which may render the model to lose sight of long-term targets and economics.Index Terms-Carbon policy, computational time, dual equilibrium, end effects, foresight, infrastructure planning.
NOMENCLATURE TPlanning horizon (years). N Set representing all network nodes, where D is the set of regional demand nodes. A Set representing all network arcs, which consists of generation (G), interregional transmission (T ), and fuel (F ) arcs. i, j, k Energy sector nodes, where arcs connecting them represent various infrastructures. t, z Time period. e (i,j) (t)Energy flow in the arc (i, j) at time t. eInv (i,j) Number of hours in a time period t. IR Inflation rate. Arc operational efficiency parameter, which models energy conversion and transmission efficiencies. E.g., fuel to generation output conversion efficiency (generation heat rate) and transmission losses.Nodal energy demanded at region j at time t.The energy demanded may be electricity, petroleum, or natural gas depending upon the subsystem of the energy system where the node j is situated. pkd j (t) Peak demand at time t in region j. RM j (t)Reserve margin at time t in region j. lbe (i,j) (t),Lower and upper existing capacities (accounts ube (i,j) (t) periodic retirements for infrastructures) of energy arc at time t. uf (i,j)