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Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statisticallybased predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company's fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company's data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right censored. We use a parametric lifetime model to describe the lifetime distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure, based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of transformers.

This paper is the first of a two-part paper presenting a multiperiod generalized network flow model of the integrated energy system in the United States. Part I describes the modeling approach used to evaluate the economic efficiencies of the system-wide energy flows, from the coal and natural gas suppliers to the electric load centers. Under the proposed problem formulation, fuel supply and electricity demand nodes are connected via a transportation network and the model is solved for the most efficient allocation of quantities and corresponding prices. The methodology includes the physical, economic, and environmental aspects that characterize the different networks. Part II of this paper provides numerical results that demonstrate the application of the model.

This paper describes use of a multiobjective optimization method, elitist nondominated sorting genetic algorithm version II (NSGA-II), to the generation expansion planning (GEP) problem. The proposed model provides for decision maker choice from among the different trade-off solutions. Two different problem formulations are considered. In one formulation, the first objective is to minimize cost; the second objective is to minimize sum of normalized constraint violations. In the other formulation, the first objective is to minimize investment cost; the second objective is to minimize outage cost (or maximize reliability). Virtual mapping procedure is introduced to improve the performance of NSGA-II. The GEP problem considered is a test system for a six-year planning horizon having five types of candidate units. The results are compared and validated.