A neural predictor of cultural popularity

Abstract

We use neuroimaging to predict cultural popularity -something that is popular in the broadest sense and appeals to a large number of individuals. Neuroeconomic research suggests that activity in reward-related regions of the brain, notably the orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum, is predictive of future purchasing decisions, but it is unknown whether the neural signals of a small group of individuals are predictive of the purchasing decisions of the population at large. For neuroimaging to be useful as a measure of widespread popularity, these neural responses would have to generalize to a much larger population that is not the direct subject of the brain imaging itself. Here, we test the possibility of using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to predict the relative popularity of a common good: music. We used fMRI to measure the brain responses of a relatively small group of adolescents while listening to songs of largely unknown artists. As a measure of popularity, the sales of these songs were totaled for the three years following scanning, and brain responses were then correlated with these "future" earnings. Although subjective likability of the songs was not predictive of sales, activity within the ventral striatum was significantly correlated with the number of units sold. These results suggest that the neural responses to goods are not only predictive of purchase decisions for those individuals actually scanned, but such responses generalize to the population at large and may be used to predict cultural popularity.

Progress and challenges in probing the human brain

“…Although most of this work is conducted by and for corporations aiming to improve sales rather than share scientific knowledge, published academic studies have begun to lend some credence to the potential of neuromarketing. For example, when teenage subjects were scanned while listening to unfamiliar songs, the reward system activity evoked by the songs, but not the subjects' ratings of their likeability, was predictive of sales of the songs over the subsequent three years 61 . Prediction is also important outside of business.…”

Neural Prediction of Communication-Relevant Outcomes

“…In comparison to the self-report ratings of the individuals from the smaller groups, neural activity in MPFC added significant predictive value in both studies. Similar methods have been used to predict population level sales data for songs (Berns & Moore, 2012), perceived effectiveness of anti-drug messages (Weber, Huskey, Mangus, Westcott-Baker, & Turner, in press), and social media response to television content (Dmochowski et al, 2014). These studies differ markedly from those described above in that they treat the message (or other communication content) as the unit of analysis, and compare aggregated neural activity across multiple individuals as predictors of population level behaviors that presumably result from campaign exposure.…”

Neuroprediction of future rearrest

“…Indeed, neuroscientists have suggested that endophenotypes carry the potential to characterize underlying traits and abnormalities independently of behavioral phenotypes (5). This stance has been supported by recent functional MRI (fMRI) studies that have, for instance, accurately predicted choices in a motor-decision task (6), substance abuse relapse (7)(8)(9)(10), and consumer purchases (i.e., neuromarketing) (11). These results raise the possibility that more direct measures of brain activity associated with impulse control may lend incremental utility to the prediction of future antisocial behavior.…”