A New Analysis of U. S. Natural Gas Supplies

Abstract

An empirical model of natural gas discovery and production in theVr?i[ed Sta!eshas bewndeveloped to express rhe over-all eflect of~he various (echno!ogic, geologic and economic forces, Validity of this model is supported by the good fit of historical da[a, conformance wilh reasonable boundary conditions and applicability to the closely related crude oil discovery and production his(oty, Forecasts from this model are compared wirh plausible estimates of gas demand and corresponding supply requirernerrts to the year 2000, In no care are the ultimately recoverable reserves a iimiting factor. However, it isckarly shown that the ratio of proved reserves to annual production (RIP ratio) cannot be maintained near present levels without requiring unrealistically high discovery rates to meet even conservative esriinates of demand. Only by allowing a decline to about a IO-year R/p ratio by the year 1990, anda6-to8-year Rlp ratio by theyear 2000, could demand be met without a major swp-up in discovery rate. These declining reserve levels are expected to require development of economic sources of suuplernental gas to stabilize the Rlp ratio for natural gas. Depending on the criteria used ro define need forsupplementalg ar, 0.4 to I trillion cu ftlyem wordd have to b-ecome available ar early as 1978, but not later than 1990. Capital requirements for .supplemenial ga.r capacity, either as imported LNG or as synthetic pipeline gas from coal, would be on the order tif $1 billion per year.

The Evolution of an Energy Contrarian

“…In quite contrarian modeling efforts during the late 1960s and early 1970s, my coworkers and I projected the economically recoverable US natural gas resource base to be substantially larger than what was the consensus at that time. As early as 1968, with another of my mentors, Martin A Elliott, who was director of IGT from 1956 to 1961, I projected an ultimately economically recoverable US gas resource base of 1740 trillion cubic ft (Tcf), not far below current estimates (7). Such a resource base was adequate, even for the greatly overstated future consumption, provided that government policies that artificially constrained exploration, development, and production were modified (8).…”

“…The current funding mechanism provides for the collection of roughly equal amounts through a reduced surcharge on nondiscounted interstate gas volumes and through a new surcharge on nondiscounted demand/reservation fees for firm pipeline capacity. 7 However, because of widespread discounting in response to competitive pressures, actual GRI revenues have fallen short of FERC-approved budgets. Further changes to reduce the complexity of the funding mechanism and to reduce the uncertainty of GRI program funding and its recovery by GRI members are under consideration.…”

Energy resources of the United States

“…data, 1966) ; McKelvey and others (1969) ; Schwienfurth (unpub. data, 1971); (c) Hubbert (1969); (d) Weeks (1958Weeks ( , 1959; (e) Moore (1970); (f) Elliott and Linden (1968) ; (g) Potential Gas Committee (PGC) (Colorado School Mines Found., Potential Gas Agency, 1971); and (h) Nelson and Burk (1966).…”

Potential Solutions for the Short to Medium-Term Natural Gas Shortage Issues of Europe: What Can Qatar Do?

“…Qatar has worked with Europe in the past on energy issues. Due to an energy emergency, Qatar sent four LNG ships to the United Kingdom in late 2021 [27]. Lastly, in order to keep up with the increased worldwide demand for LNG, Qatar's terminals are already working at their maximum capacity.…”