A new approach to solar flare prediction

Goodman, Michael L.; Kwan, Chiman; Ayhan, Bulent; Shang, Eric L.

doi:10.1007/s11467-020-0956-6

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…For example, modern flare and CME forecast models now often rely on combinations of magnetograms and sometimes images to assess the likelihood of a major x-ray outburst and/or a material eruption (e.g. Falconer et al, 2011;Goodman et al, 2020;Leka, Barnes, and Wagner, 2018;Leka et al, 2019). These approaches now can routinely make use of HMI images of active region vector fields combined with chromospheric magnetic field observations and related modeling to reconstruct the field geometry (e.g.…”

Section: Modeling: Space Weather Research and Operationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Height Measurements of the Solar Vector Magnetic Field

Bertello,

Liu,

Pevtsov

et al. 2023

Bulletin of the AAS

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This white paper advocates the importance of multi-height measurements of the vector magnetic field in the solar atmosphere. As briefly described in this document, these measurements are critical for addressing some of the most fundamental questions in solar and heliospheric physics today, including: (1) What is the origin of the magnetic field observed in the solar atmosphere? (2) What is the coupling between magnetic fields and flows throughout the solar atmosphere? Accurate measurements of the photospheric and chromospheric three-dimensional magnetic fields are required for a precise determination of the emergence and evolution of active regions. Newly emerging magnetic flux in pre-existing magnetic regions causes an increase in the topological complexity of the magnetic field, which leads to flares and coronal mass ejections. Measurements of the vector magnetic field constitute also the primary product for space weather operations, research, and modeling of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere. The proposed next generation Ground-based solar Observing Network Group (ngGONG), a coordinated system of multi-platform instruments, will address these questions and provide large datasets for statistical investigations of solar feature behavior and evolution and continuity in monitoring for space-weather focused endeavors both research and operational. It will also enable sun-as-a-star investigations, crucial as we look toward understanding other planet-hosting stars. A wide-spread use of full-disk vector magnetic field observations in solar physics research, their increasing importance for understanding many fundamental phenomena, and a growing potential of these data for operational space weather forecast strongly suggest that these type of observations need to be continued as part of long-term (synoptic) program from ground-based and/or space-based facilities. Regular multi-height observations of magnetic fields on the Sun is the next frontier in Solar Physics.

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Section: Modeling: Space Weather Research and Operationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Height Measurements of the Solar Vector Magnetic Field

Bertello,

Liu,

Pevtsov

et al. 2023

Bulletin of the AAS

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“…Among the flare prediction tools that do not use ML, Shramko et al (2019) demonstrated the possibility of forecasting flares within 24 hours relying solely on microwave radiation signatures. Goodman et al (2020) studied 14 active regions and showed that increases in the photospheric resistive heating rate in active regions are correlated with the occurrence of M and X flares a few hours to a few days later. Morales & Santos (2020) investigated the predicting capabilities of the Lu and Hamilton self-organised-criticality avalanche model (Lu & Hamilton 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A DEFT Way to Forecast Solar Flares

Krista

Chih

2021

ApJ

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Solar flares have been linked to some of the most significant space weather hazards at Earth. These hazards, including radio blackouts and energetic particle events, can start just minutes after the flare onset. Therefore, it is of great importance to identify and predict flare events. In this paper we introduce the Detection and EUV Flare Tracking (DEFT) tool, which allows us to identify flare signatures and their precursors using high spatial and temporal resolution extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) solar observations. The unique advantage of DEFT is its ability to identify small but significant EUV intensity changes that may lead to solar eruptions. Furthermore, the tool can identify the location of the disturbances and distinguish events occurring at the same time in multiple locations. The algorithm analyzes high temporal cadence observations obtained from the Solar Ultraviolet Imager instrument aboard the GOES-R satellite. In a study of 61 flares of various magnitudes observed in 2017, the “main” EUV flare signatures (those closest in time to the X-ray start time) were identified on average 6 minutes early. The “precursor” EUV signatures (second-closest EUV signatures to the X-ray start time) appeared on average 14 minutes early. Our next goal is to develop an operational version of DEFT and to simulate and test its real-time use. A fully operational DEFT has the potential to significantly improve space weather forecast times.

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“…Therefore, the literature is rich in flareprediction methods applied to a wide range of observations of ARs (see, e.g. McCloskey et al 2018;Leka et al 2018;Campi et al 2019;Falco et al 2019;Goodman et al 2020;Lin et al 2020), as well as a number of studies devoted to the comparison between different prediction methods (see, e.g., Barnes et al 2016;Leka et al 2019a,b;Park et al 2020, and references therein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative case study of two methods to assess the eruptive potential of selected active regions

Zuccarello¹,

Ermolli²,

Korsós³

et al. 2021

Res. Astron. Astrophys.

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Solar eruptive events, like flares and coronal mass ejections, are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt significant increase in the kinetic energy of particles. These energetic phenomena can have important effects on the space weather conditions and therefore it is necessary to understand their origin, in particular, what is the eruptive potential of an active region (AR). In these case studies, we compare two distinct methods that were used in previous works to investigate the variations of some characteristic physical parameters during the pre-flare states of flaring ARs. These methods consider: i) the magnetic flux evolution and magnetic helicity accumulation, and ii) the fractal and multi-fractal properties of flux concentrations in ARs. Our comparative analysisis based on time series of photospheric data obtained bythe Solar Dynamics Observatory between March 2011 and June 2013. We selected two distinct samples of ARs: one is distinguished by the occurrence of more energetic M- and X-class flare events, that may have a rapid effect on not just the near-Earth space, but also on the terrestrial environment; the second is characterized by no-flares or having just a few C- and B-class flares. We foundthat the two tested methods complement each other in their ability to assess the eruptive potentials of ARs and could be employed to identify ARs prone to flaring activity. Based on the presented case study, we suggest that using a combination of different methods may aid to identify more reliably the eruptive potentials of ARs and help to better understand the pre-flare states.

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A new approach to solar flare prediction

Cited by 8 publications

References 85 publications

Multi-Height Measurements of the Solar Vector Magnetic Field

Multi-Height Measurements of the Solar Vector Magnetic Field

A DEFT Way to Forecast Solar Flares

Comparative case study of two methods to assess the eruptive potential of selected active regions

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