A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia

Alcamo, Joseph; Dronin, N.; Endejan, Marcel; Golubev, Genady N.; Kirilenko, Andrei

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.006

Cited by 163 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The construction of GCM scenarios assumes that the climate vari-75 36: 65-77, 2008 ability of the future is the same as the observed; therefore, any changes in the CV of yields were as a result of a complex mix of temperature, rainfall, CO 2 fertilization effect and plant physiology, interacting with soil properties and affecting crop growth over time (Thomson et al 2005, Alcamo et al 2007. In reality the projected climate change will result in higher yield variability, posing significant consequences for farming businesses and future management decisions (Mearns et al 1997, Tingem et al 2008.…”

Section: Discussion and Implications For Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

Tingem¹,

Rivington²,

Bellocchi³

et al. 2008

Clim. Res.

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This study involves an assessment of the potential effects of greenhouse gas climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO 2 on crop yields in Cameroon. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of 2 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, namely NASA/Goddard Institute GISS and the Hadley Centre's HadCM3, to the CropSyst crop model to simulate current and future (2020, 2080) crop yields (bambara nut, groundnut, maize, sorghum and soybean) in 8 agricultural regions of Cameroon. For the future we estimate substantial yield increases for bambara groundnut, soybean and groundnut, and little or no change and even decreases of maize and sorghum yields, varying according to the climate scenario and the agricultural region. Maize and sorghum (both C4 crops) yields are expected to decrease by 14.6 and 39.9%, respectively, across the whole country under GISS 2080 scenarios. The results also show that the effect of temperature patterns on climate change is much more important than that of precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change/variability and dissemination of information to farmers, to encourage adaptation to climate change.KEY WORDS: Cameroon · Climate change · CO 2 · Crop yields · Adaptation · CropSyst Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 36: [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77] 2008 Though a few studies have been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries (Seo et al. 2005, Adejuwon, 2006, Thornton et al. 2006, Kabubo-Mariara & Karanja 2007, there is a dearth of literature on this impact in Cameroon; thus the adaptation and mitigation measures that are available to policy makers are severely limited.The present study aims to partially address this research gap. It uses the coupled climate scenariocrop model method, in which coupled atmosphereocean general circulation models (A-OGCMs), used to generate future climate scenarios, are integrated into crop models in order to simulate future crop yields (Tubiello et al. 2000, Brassard & Singh 2007. The use of this method allows us to gain an insight not only into how future crop yields may change, but also into the nature of the factors responsible for yield changes, and how they may affect crop production. Understanding the impacts of long-term climate change on agriculture is crucial for future agricultural policies and interventions in Cameroon, as well as aiding practical steps to mitigate potentially adverse impacts of climate change, which is likely to have important implications for future food security.The general objective of this study is to examine the effects of long-term climate change on Cameroon crop agriculture and identify the adaptation options of agroecological systems using a simulation analysis. The specific objectives are to simulate and highlight the expected effects of various long-term climate change scenarios on future agricultural productivity and discuss policy ...

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Section: Discussion and Implications For Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

Tingem¹,

Rivington²,

Bellocchi³

et al. 2008

Clim. Res.

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“…Globally, a significant percentage of humanity is dependent upon the ecological services and water resources that mountain glaciers provide to downstream populations and their rapid recession has widespread implications for future water availability, agricultural production and human vulnerability (Alcamo et al 2007;Barnett et al 2005;Barry and Seimon 2000;Fagre et al 2003;IPCC 2007a;Kundzewicz et al 2008;Milner et al 2009;Morton 2007;Orlove 2009;Rosenzweig et al 2004; Thompson et al 2006;Viviroli et al 2007;Xu et al 2009). Mountains often support complex and deeply interdependent natural and social systems that are extraordinarily sensitive to environmental and social change and provide compelling examples of the rapidly advancing impacts of global warming as they are harbingers of the possible global environmental and social consequences of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

et al. 2010

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Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade −1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km 3 . Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998-1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods.

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“…Furthermore, model runs were summarized for the time period 1991-2000. The effect of inter-annual variability of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on irrigation water requirements and crop yields (Alcamo et al, 2007) is not taken into account. Here, additional testing of the model's capability to capture such dynamics will be necessary.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A model-based assessment of the potential role of irrigated cropland for biogas production in Europe

2009

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Abstract. For the European Union, the increasing use of renewable energy sources is an important instrument to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve greater independency from energy imports. Here, agriculture has the chance to become an important contributor by the cultivation of bioenergy crops. In this paper, the potential role of irrigated cropland for the cultivation of silage maize for biogas production is analyzed on the European level. A methodology is developed to identify suitable locations for maize cultivation and to evaluate their performance in respect of the amount of irrigation water and land needed for energy production. For this purpose, GIS analysis techniques are combined with simulation results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL for maize yields and irrigation water requirements. The generated information can serve as input for the development of European-scale bio-energy policies and for further analysis of the water footprint and energy balance of bioenergy systems.

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A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia

Cited by 163 publications

References 19 publications

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

Effects of climate change on crop production in Cameroon

Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

A model-based assessment of the potential role of irrigated cropland for biogas production in Europe

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