2014
DOI: 10.1177/1063293x14561871
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A new buffer sizing approach based on the uncertainty of project activities

Abstract: A new buffer sizing method based on the uncertainty of the project is proposed in order to improve the accuracy of buffer management. Assuming that the project activities follow lognormal distribution, the model proposed first analyzes the influence of uncertainty, which is characterized as the main factor to affect the activity's duration. Fuzzy theory is then introduced to calculate the uncertainty and is adjusted using resource tightness and network complexity. Finally, a new buffer sizing model based on th… Show more

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Cited by 14 publications
(15 citation statements)
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References 23 publications
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“…With regard to project risks, depending on their severity, Lechler, Edington, and Gao (2012) argue that time and money reserves can be employed to mitigate their effects and protect the work activities, which can thus be completed within the planned baselines. Zhang, Jia, and Diaz (2015) point out that this is an important strategy because generally the project plan is full of uncertainties arising from the unpredictability of external elements and changes requested by clients.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…With regard to project risks, depending on their severity, Lechler, Edington, and Gao (2012) argue that time and money reserves can be employed to mitigate their effects and protect the work activities, which can thus be completed within the planned baselines. Zhang, Jia, and Diaz (2015) point out that this is an important strategy because generally the project plan is full of uncertainties arising from the unpredictability of external elements and changes requested by clients.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To model the random activity durations we use a right-skewed lognormal distribution with mean equal to the baseline duration and a coefficient of variation, cv, to represent the uncertainty level. A lognormal distribution has also been employed in a number of research articles on CC/BM (Tukel et al 2006;Bie et al 2012;Zhang et al 2015c). We would like to note that illustrating how to capture the duration uncertainty is beyond the scope of the present work.…”
Section: Experimental Layoutmentioning
confidence: 97%
“…From 2011 until the date of this present research, CCPM applications have expanded in multi-project environments. New mathematical methods have been created for the joint programming of several projects, merging the knowledge of CCPM with other approaches, such as multi-objective optimization methods (Wang et al , 2014), algorithms based on multi-agent systems (Zheng et al , 2014), evidential reasoning approach (Yang and Fu, 2014) and fuzzy theory (Roghanian et al , 2018; Zhang et al , 2015).…”
Section: Co-citation and Keyword Co-occurrence Network Analysismentioning
confidence: 99%