A new design of an adaptive model of infectious diseases based on artificial intelligence approach: monitoring and forecasting of COVID-19 epidemic cases

Abstract

Background: Mathematical infectious disease models available in literature, mostly take in their design that the parameters of basic reproduction number R 0 and interval serial S I as constant values during tracking the outbreak cases. In this report a new intelligent model called HH-COVID-19 is proposed, with simple design and adaptive parameters.Methods: e parameters R 0 and S I are adapted by adding three new weighting factors α, β and γ and two free parameters σ 1 and σ 2 in function of time t, thus the HH-COVID-19 become time-variant model. e parameters R 0 , S I , α, β, γ, σ 1 and σ 2 are estimated optimally based on a recent algorithm of arti cial intelligence (AI), inspired from nature called Harris Hawks Optimizer (HHO), using the data of the con rmed infected cases in Algeria country in the rst t = 55 days.Results: Parameters estimated optimally: R 0 = 1.341, S I = 5.991, α = 2.987, β = 1.566, γ = 4.998, σ 1 = −0.133 and σ 2 = 0.0324. R 0 starts on 1.341 and ends to 2.677, and S I starts on 5.991 and ends to 6.692. e estimated results are identically to the actual infected incidence in Algeria, HH-COVID-19 proved its superiority in comparison study. HH-COVID-19 predicts that in 1 May, the infected cases exceed 50 000, during May, to reach quickly the herd immunity stage at beginning of July.

A Psycholinguistic Analysis of World Leaders’ Discourses Concerning the Covid-19 Context: Authenticity and Emotional Tone

“…Further psycholinguistics analysis is ongoing in this study to determine the personality and action, in COVID-19 world context, through leaders' verbal behavior. The pandemic situation demands replicated studies by using artificial intelligence methods (Nail et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020).…”

Applications of artificial intelligence in battling against covid-19: A literature review

“…New learning approaches: In some works, new machine learning approaches are developed to predict the trend of pandemic. In [449] , a new intelligent model called HH-COVID-19 is proposed for modeling the epidemic. In [450] , machine learning algorithms are used to quantify the effect of covid-19 lock-down concentrations of four air pollutants.…”

Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

“…Multiple models have been achieved in Algeria to forecast the epidemic or to evaluate the preventive implemented measure with different approaches including local, regional and global studies (Balah and Djeddou, 2020;Belkacem, 2020;Ben Hassen et al, 2020;Bentout et al, 2020;Boudrioua and Boudrioua, 2020;Daw and El Bouzebdei, 2020;Hamidouche, 2020;Moussaoui and Auger, 2020;Nail et al, 2020;Rahmani, 2020;Rezki, 2020;Rouabah et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020). These studies used the most common SIR (Boudrioua and Boudrioua, 2020;Rezki, 2020) and SEIR (Belkacem, 2020;Bentout et al, 2020;Moussaoui and Auger, 2020;Peng et al, 2020;Rouabah et al, 2020) models or other mathematical models such as ARFIMA (Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average Models) (Balah and Djeddou, 2020) and the Alg-COVID-19 Model (Rahmani, 2020).…”