A new hybrid approach to human error probability quantification–applications in maritime operations

Xi, Yongtao; Yang, Zaili; Fang, Quangen; Chen, W J; Wang, Jiangfeng

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2017.04.018

Cited by 76 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Most of such studies are unable to measure the specific factor changing, especially the quantitative data of psychological and physiological characteristics of the human. Relevant studies (Xi et al, 2017, Akyuz and Celik, 2014, Chen et al, 2013 focus on the concepts of HOFs, HRA, and human errors, human failure, etc. Physiological signals are collected to quantify human factors using sensors like Electroencephalograph (EEG), Electrocardiograph (ECG), Electromyography (EMG), blood volume pulse, skin electrical response, and eye movement.…”

Section: Seafarers' Emotion Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of seafarers’ emotion on human performance using bridge simulation

et al. 2018

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75-96% of maritime accidents are caused by human and organisational factors. Seafarers' emotion may degrade the effectivity of human behaviour when tasks in onboard environment are complex and demanding. This study was concerned with the relationship between seafarers' emotion and occurring events in navigation. The Electroencephalogram (EEG) and Self-Assessment Manikin (SAM) scale rating are used to investigate the occurrence and impact of seafarers' emotions on their performance using a bridge simulator. The study was conducted and described in two sections: emotion calibration and test recognition. In the first section, two types of emotions are induced by the sound clips of the International Affective Digitized Sounds (IADS), developed by the National Institute of Mental Health Center for the Study of Human Emotions. In the second section, emotion is recognised by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier, as well as self-rated after the crew-qualified test in a bridge simulator. The results indicate that SVM can identify the emotions by EEG feature extraction, with an accuracy of 77.55%. The results concerning officers' emotion in a bridge simulator test reveal that seafarers' emotion in maritime operations, relating to events exposure, affects their behaviour and decision-making. In addition, negative emotion has a higher likelihood of contributing to human errors than positive emotion. Less negative emotion is the most dangerous emotion state during navigation, followed by extreme positive emotion.

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Section: Seafarers' Emotion Identificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of seafarers’ emotion on human performance using bridge simulation

et al. 2018

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“…Analyses of the causes of MTA and research on the interrelationship of such causes are being continuously developed. The complexity of the cause of the accident system has been established, and the chain model associated with the cause of the accident has basically been consistent [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

et al. 2019

JMSE

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Many causal factors to marine traffic accidents (MTAs) influence each other and have associated effects. It is necessary to quantify the correlation path mode of these factors to improve accident prevention measures and their effects. In the application of human factors to accident mechanisms, the complex structural chains on causes to MTA systems were analyzed by combining the human failure analysis and classification system (HFACS) with theoretical structural equation modeling (SEM). First, the accident causation model was established as a human error analysis classification in sight of a MTA, and the constituent elements of the causes of the accident were conducted. Second, a hypothetical model of human factors classification was proposed by applying the practice of the structural model. Third, with the data resources from ship accident cases, this hypothetical model was discussed and simulated, and as a result, the relationship path dependency mode between the latent independent variable of the accident was quantitatively analyzed based on the observed dependent variable of human behavior. Application examples show that relationships in the HFACS are verified and in line with the path developing mode, and resource management factors have a pronounced influence and a strong relevance to the causal chain of the accidents. Appropriate algorithms for the theoretical model can be used to numerically understand the safety performance of marine traffic systems under different parameters through mathematical analysis. Hierarchical assumptions in the HFACS model are quantitatively verified.

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“…On the basis of applied research, Fang et al analysed the importance degree of the "human-machine-environment" cause of the pilotage risk system [2]. Xi et al pointed out that the main cause of PAs was human error [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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Maritime pilotage is an important guarantee for the safety of water traffic in port. The pilot is affected by the complex port environment, the differences of crew and equipment of different ships, the physical and psychological pressure of the pilot himself, as well as the management factors from the pilot station and maritime safety administration. In order to avoid pilotage accidents (PAs), it is necessary to study the coupling effect of human-organizational factors (HOFs) on PAs. In this paper, from the perspective of HOF risk coupling in pilotage, the problem of HOF risk coupling in maritime pilotage is studied by using the hierarchical classification idea of the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) and the method of system dynamics (SD). First of all, HFACS is used to analyse the HOF risk causal elements (RCEs) in pilotage, and 70 RCEs are summed up in four layers; secondly, the SD coupling model of RCEs is constructed; finally, based on a dataset of PAs collected by the Shanghai Harbour Pilot Association, the coupling simulation of RCEs in pilotage is carried out, and the volatility is evaluated. In general, the safety situation of maritime pilotage has been improving in the Shanghai port. However, four RCEs (negligence, habit, pilotage experience, and violations) in unsafe acts and two RCEs (teamwork and personal safety awareness) in precondition for unsafe acts contribute the most to maritime PAs and need to be paid attention to.As important national and international hubs of transportation, ports are widely concerned by the society. Moreover, with the continuous growth of international trade, the port becomes more and more busy, making the density of ships in the port water area increase greatly. As a result, water traffic accidents occur frequently, and people's lives, property, and environment are facing a huge threat. In particular, some serious accidents, such as the collision of CF Crystal and Sanchi in the East China Sea [4], have caused great concerns.In the actual pilotage, the pilot's advice is supposed to be authorized by the captain and implemented by the officer on watch (OOW) and helmsman in the normal conditions. As such, the captain needs to supervise the operation of the pilot and take necessary actions, including taking command when he has any doubt. Therefore, it is extremely important that the ship's crew on bridge and the pilot work closely to guarantee the safety of ships. When berthing and unberthing, the cooperation between the ship and the tugboat and the dock side is also required. In some special cases, if the visibility is poor, or the ship carried dangerous goods, some additional safety measures are needed, such as additional look-out and tug escorts. Obviously, due to the addition of pilots, the traditional ship's bridge has changed in the operation of navigation, so that pilots' technical acts directly affect the safety of the ships entering and leaving the ports. Furthermore, pilots are faced with the complicated environment of the pilotage waters, the ...

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A new hybrid approach to human error probability quantification–applications in maritime operations

Cited by 76 publications

References 46 publications

Effects of seafarers’ emotion on human performance using bridge simulation

Effects of seafarers’ emotion on human performance using bridge simulation

Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

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