Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Hu, Shenping; Li, Zhuang; Xi, Yongtao; Gu, Xunyu; Zhang, Xinxin

doi:10.3390/jmse7040096

Cited by 33 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…However, traditional linear relationship models can no longer explain complex systems nowadays, and the SCM has been subject to criticism because simplified and linear models cannot explain the complexity, dynamics, and adaptability of the system and unexpected failures caused by system characteristics [30][31][32]. As the system thinking method can analyse the system as a whole instead of a certain part in isolation [33,34], more recently safety scientists have proposed a series of systematic thinking methods with social technology systems at the core, such as AcciMap [35], system theory accident modelling and process models (Stamp) [36], SD [37], and the functional resonance accident model (FRAM) [38].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the maritime transportation industry, 80% of maritime traffic accidents (MTAs) are related to HOFs [30], such as negligence of watchkeepers, poor communication and teamwork, and lack of supervision and management. IMO revealed that human factor is one of the most important factors that lead to accidents or avoid accidents in revised guidelines for FSA [39].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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Maritime pilotage is an important guarantee for the safety of water traffic in port. The pilot is affected by the complex port environment, the differences of crew and equipment of different ships, the physical and psychological pressure of the pilot himself, as well as the management factors from the pilot station and maritime safety administration. In order to avoid pilotage accidents (PAs), it is necessary to study the coupling effect of human-organizational factors (HOFs) on PAs. In this paper, from the perspective of HOF risk coupling in pilotage, the problem of HOF risk coupling in maritime pilotage is studied by using the hierarchical classification idea of the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) and the method of system dynamics (SD). First of all, HFACS is used to analyse the HOF risk causal elements (RCEs) in pilotage, and 70 RCEs are summed up in four layers; secondly, the SD coupling model of RCEs is constructed; finally, based on a dataset of PAs collected by the Shanghai Harbour Pilot Association, the coupling simulation of RCEs in pilotage is carried out, and the volatility is evaluated. In general, the safety situation of maritime pilotage has been improving in the Shanghai port. However, four RCEs (negligence, habit, pilotage experience, and violations) in unsafe acts and two RCEs (teamwork and personal safety awareness) in precondition for unsafe acts contribute the most to maritime PAs and need to be paid attention to.As important national and international hubs of transportation, ports are widely concerned by the society. Moreover, with the continuous growth of international trade, the port becomes more and more busy, making the density of ships in the port water area increase greatly. As a result, water traffic accidents occur frequently, and people's lives, property, and environment are facing a huge threat. In particular, some serious accidents, such as the collision of CF Crystal and Sanchi in the East China Sea [4], have caused great concerns.In the actual pilotage, the pilot's advice is supposed to be authorized by the captain and implemented by the officer on watch (OOW) and helmsman in the normal conditions. As such, the captain needs to supervise the operation of the pilot and take necessary actions, including taking command when he has any doubt. Therefore, it is extremely important that the ship's crew on bridge and the pilot work closely to guarantee the safety of ships. When berthing and unberthing, the cooperation between the ship and the tugboat and the dock side is also required. In some special cases, if the visibility is poor, or the ship carried dangerous goods, some additional safety measures are needed, such as additional look-out and tug escorts. Obviously, due to the addition of pilots, the traditional ship's bridge has changed in the operation of navigation, so that pilots' technical acts directly affect the safety of the ships entering and leaving the ports. Furthermore, pilots are faced with the complicated environment of the pilotage waters, the ...

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

Zhang

Chen

et al. 2020

JMSE

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“…The process risk is a dynamic characterization of the risk state at any time during the system's operation. It is the output of the coupling effect of uncertain (random) events under the influence of risk factors [41]. The process risk of bauxite shipping describes the development and evolution of the bauxite shipping system between the safety and accident subsystems of Handy bauxite carriers, where bauxite continuously interacts with the traffic environment over time.…”

Section: Description Of Bauxite Shippingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Approach to Risk Performance Reasoning with Hidden Markov Model for Bauxite Shipping Process Safety by Handy Carriers

Jin

et al. 2020

Applied Sciences

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An approach based on the hidden Markov model (HMM) is proposed for risk performance reasoning (RPR) for the bauxite shipping process by Handy carriers. The unobservable (hidden) state process in the approach aims to model the underlying risk performance, while the observation process was formed from the time series of risk factors. Within the framework, the log-likelihood probability was used as the measure of similarity between historical and current data of risk reasoning factors. Based on scalar quantization regulation and risk performance quantization regulation, the RPR approach with different step sizes was conducted on the operational case, the performance of which was evaluated in terms of effectiveness and accuracy. The reasoning performance of the HMM was tested during the validation period using three simulated scenarios and one accident scenario. The results showed significant improvement in the reasoning capacity, and satisfactory performance for numerical risk reasoning and categorical performance reasoning. The proposed model is able to provide a reference for risk performance monitoring and threat pre-warning during the bauxite shipping process.

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“…The common feature of these methods is to study the safety of complex systems from the perspective of system thinking, emphasizing the importance of interaction of multiple components in system safety analysis and standardizing the mutual constraints between systems through various constraints. Information feedback to describe the context of the system operation, just to make up for the shortcomings of traditional analysis methods, has significant advantages in dealing with system safety problems, such as software intensive, new human and organizational factors (HOF) faced by complex systems, and has attracted widespread attention in the industry [32]. Most of the existing methodologies lack inbuilt and practical techniques that take into consideration the complex interactions and dynamic feedback effects.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics Simulation for Process Risk Evolution on the Bunker Operation of an LNG-fueled Vessel with Catastrophe Mathematical Models

Xuan

et al. 2019

JMSE

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Liquefied nature gas (LNG) is a green energy. LNG-fueled vessels are extremely complex engineering systems. In view of the inherent hazardous properties of LNG fuel, LNG fueling is not only an important part, but it is also full of high risks in the operation of LNG-fueled vessels (LNGFVs). Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors, and the intrinsic relationship among them between the LNG and the vessel, and to simulate the system dynamics in the process of LNGFV operation. During the process of fueling of LNGFV, at every moment the vessel interacts with the energy and information of the surrounding environment. First, the impact of the three interactions of the fueling operation process, ship factors, and environmental factors were analyzed on the risk of fueling operation, and a complete node system was proposed as to the complex system dynamics mode. Second, by analyzing the boundary conditions of the system, the relationship of factors was established via the tools of system dynamics (SD). Based on the catastrophe theory (CA), the dynamics model for the fueling of LNG is set up to study the system’s risk mutation phenomenon. Third, combined with the simulation results of the case analysis, the risk evolution mode of the LNGFV during the fueling process was obtained, and constructive opinions were put forward for improving the safe fueling of the LNGFV. Application examples show that formal description of risk emergence and transition is a prerequisite for the quantitative analysis of the risk evolution mode. In order to prevent accidents, the coupling synchronization of risk emergence should be weakened, and meanwhile risk control should be implemented.

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Path Analysis of Causal Factors Influencing Marine Traffic Accident via Structural Equation Numerical Modeling

Cited by 33 publications

References 36 publications

Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

Dynamics Simulation of the Risk Coupling Effect between Maritime Pilotage Human Factors under the HFACS Framework

Approach to Risk Performance Reasoning with Hidden Markov Model for Bauxite Shipping Process Safety by Handy Carriers

Dynamics Simulation for Process Risk Evolution on the Bunker Operation of an LNG-fueled Vessel with Catastrophe Mathematical Models

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