Dynamics Simulation for Process Risk Evolution on the Bunker Operation of an LNG-fueled Vessel with Catastrophe Mathematical Models

Abstract

Liquefied nature gas (LNG) is a green energy. LNG-fueled vessels are extremely complex engineering systems. In view of the inherent hazardous properties of LNG fuel, LNG fueling is not only an important part, but it is also full of high risks in the operation of LNG-fueled vessels (LNGFVs). Therefore, it is necessary to study the risk factors, and the intrinsic relationship among them between the LNG and the vessel, and to simulate the system dynamics in the process of LNGFV operation. During the process of fueling of LNGFV, at every moment the vessel interacts with the energy and information of the surrounding environment. First, the impact of the three interactions of the fueling operation process, ship factors, and environmental factors were analyzed on the risk of fueling operation, and a complete node system was proposed as to the complex system dynamics mode. Second, by analyzing the boundary conditions of the system, the relationship of factors was established via the tools of system dynamics (SD). Based on the catastrophe theory (CA), the dynamics model for the fueling of LNG is set up to study the system’s risk mutation phenomenon. Third, combined with the simulation results of the case analysis, the risk evolution mode of the LNGFV during the fueling process was obtained, and constructive opinions were put forward for improving the safe fueling of the LNGFV. Application examples show that formal description of risk emergence and transition is a prerequisite for the quantitative analysis of the risk evolution mode. In order to prevent accidents, the coupling synchronization of risk emergence should be weakened, and meanwhile risk control should be implemented.

A Study on the Estimation of Facilities in LNG Bunkering Terminal by Simulation—Busan Port Case

“…As the number of LNG fuel vessels and the number of LNG bunker vessels have increased, the main issue of LNGBV is how boil-of-gas (BOG) reduce [17]. Considering the inherent harmful characteristics of LNG fuel, the risks of operating LNG fuel vessels are high, so an analysis of the intrinsic relationship between risk factors has been made [18]. Reducing the volume of the FGSS (Fuel Gas Supply Systems), CO2 was considered to serve as the replacement heat medium for conventionally used glycol water during LNG gasification [19].…”

“…The peak rate of Equation (7) was applied to Equation (15) (18) Equations (19) and (20) are applied to estimate the number of berths for LNGCs.…”

A stochastic modelling and optimization for the design of an LNG refuelling system in the Piraeus Port Region

“…A ranking system was used based on the overall performance metrics, such as severity of consequences, to give insights on critical units and safety issues. An approach for risk evolution on the LNG bunker operation was proposed based on dynamic theory and catastrophe mathematical models [14]. The methodology aims to predict risk emergences to prevent accidents by early risk assessment and control.…”

“…Current studies are mainly focusing on the policies and laws that should be imposed in order to support the extension of facilities and services in ports for the wide adoption and use of LNG as ship fuel [2], [9], [10], while others are examining the safety issues by performing risk assessment with respect to safety zones in LNG ports [11]- [14]. When it comes to the development and installation of LNG systems in ports, some studies are focusing of the design aspects of the network [15]- [18] and the queuing system [19]- [21].…”

Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Sustainable Traffic Safety in Hong Kong Waters

“…These first events could be improper maintenance, extreme weather conditions, and human errors [19], [55]. Human error, crew skill level, ship and environmental factors were considered while analyzing the process risk evolution of the LNG-fueled ships [56]. A study focused on maritime accidents in the Portuguese waters indicates that human error, material factors and sea and weather conditions are the most prominent accident-causing factors [57].…”