A new model of unreported COVID-19 cases outperforms three known epidemic-growth models in describing data from Cuba and Spain

Abstract

Estimating the unreported cases of Covid-19 in a region/country is a complicated problem. We propose a new mathematical model that, combined with a deterministic model of the total growth of cases, describes the time evolution of the unreported cases for each reported Covid-19 case. The new model considers the growth of unreported cases in plateau periods and the decrease towards the end of an epidemic wave. We combined the new model with a Gompertz-growth model, a generalized logistic model, and a susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model; and fitted them via Bayesian methods to data from Cuba and Spain. The combined-model fits yielded better Bayesian-Information-Criterion values than the Gompertz, logistic, and SIR models alone. This suggests the new model can achieve improved descriptions of the evolution of a Covid-19 epidemic wave.