A new, objective, database of East Coast Lows

Pepler, Acacia; Coutts-Smith, Aaron

doi:10.22499/2.6304.001

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…If we restrict analysis to only 0000UTC, consistent with Speer et al (2009) the total number of ECL days drops to 14.6 for ERAI or 40.8 for MERRA. For this reason, previous papers have argued that a weaker intensity threshold is needed to replicate ECLs in the subjective Speer et al (2009) database (Pepler and Coutts-Smith, 2013).…”

Section: Representation Of Ecls -Pgmentioning

confidence: 99%

Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high‐resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds

Pepler

Luca

Evans

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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High‐resolution reanalyses offer the potential to improve our understanding of midlatitude cyclones, particularly smaller‐scale systems and those with complex structures. However, previous studies have demonstrated large variations in the frequency and characteristics of Australian midlatitude cyclones between reanalyses when using their native resolution. In this paper we use satellite observations of winds and rainfall in order to evaluate the ability of the ERA‐Interim, JRA55, MERRA and CFSR reanalyses to reproduce Australian east coast cyclones. The MERRA reanalysis produces a large number of erroneous small‐scale lows without cyclonic wind patterns using a simple pressure‐difference‐based cyclone identification and tracking method. Consequently, we recommend the ERA‐Interim reanalysis when using such methods, or applying more complex tracking methods that are able to compensate for these issues.

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Section: Representation Of Ecls -Pgmentioning

confidence: 99%

Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high‐resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds

Pepler

Luca

Evans

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The potential for ECL development can be identified using large‐scale upper level diagnostics [ Dowdy et al , ], impacts such as precipitation [ Hopkins and Holland , ], manually using weather charts [ Speer et al , ] or automated cyclone identification, and tracking methods including some mean sea level pressure (MSLP) deepening criteria [ Pepler and Coutts‐Smith , ; Browning and Goodwin , ; Pepler et al , ]. All methods tend to identify the observed ECLs with the largest impacts [ Pepler et al , ].…”

Section: Different Approaches To Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies

Catto

2016

Rev. Geophys.

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Extratropical cyclones have long been known to be important for midlatitude weather. It is therefore important that our current state‐of‐the‐art climate models are able to realistically represent these features, in order that we can have confidence in how they are projected to change in a warming climate. Despite the observation that these cyclones are extremely variable in their structure and features, there have, over the years, been numerous attempts to classify or group them. Such classifications can provide insight into the different cloud structures, airflows, and dynamical forcing mechanisms within the different cyclone types. This review collects and details as many classification techniques as possible, and may therefore act as a reference guide to classifications. These classifications offer the opportunity to improve the way extratropical cyclone evaluation in climate models is currently done by giving more insight into the dynamical and physical processes that occur in climate models (rather than just evaluating the mean state over a broad region as is often done). Examples of where these ideas have been used, or could be used, are reviewed. Finally, the potential impacts of future climate changes on extratropical cyclones are detailed. The ways in which the classification techniques could improve our understanding of future changes in extratropical cyclones and their impacts are given.

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“…However, while databases of ECL activity exist using both manual and automated cyclone detection methods (e.g. Speer et al , ; Browning and Goodwin, ; Pepler and Coutts‐Smith, ; Callaghan and Power, ), the current suite of reanalysis products restricts analyses to periods of 60 years or less. This is inadequate to fully constrain the variability of these systems, with periods of substantially higher ECL activity in the late 19th century indicated by shipwrecks and other records (Callaghan and Helman, ; Callaghan and Power, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, while databases of ECL activity exist using both manual and automated cyclone detection methods (e.g. Speer et al, 2009;Browning and Goodwin, 2013;Pepler and Coutts-Smith, 2013;Callaghan and Power, 2014), the current suite of * Correspondence to: A. S. Pepler, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Australia, High St., Kensington 2052, Australia. E-mail: a.pepler@student.unsw.edu.au reanalysis products restricts analyses to periods of 60 years or less.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Australian east coast mid‐latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble

Pepler

Fong

Alexander

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Extratropical and subtropical cyclones, and their associated fronts, produce the majority of rainfall and extreme weather in the mid‐latitudes around the world. In the Southern Hemisphere in particular, where observations are sparse, we have limited knowledge of their long‐term variability and trends. While the long time period of the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) offers potential to assess longer‐term changes, the lack of observational data sets makes it difficult to assess its reliability. We assess the skill of the 20CR at representing mid‐latitude cyclones through a case study on the east coast of Australia. In this region, a comprehensive database has recently been developed of all severe floods between 1871 and 2012, of which >70% are associated with a coastal low‐pressure system. Through use of the full 20CR 56‐member ensemble, we are able to identify the majority of severe Australian east coast lows as early as the late 19th century, as well as recreate the cyclone tracks for some of the most severe events. The analysis shows that the full ensemble can be used for a long‐term assessment of interannual variability in cyclone frequency from at least 1911, despite large inhomogeneities in the ensemble mean pressure fields.

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A new, objective, database of East Coast Lows

Cited by 22 publications

References 17 publications

Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high‐resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds

Independently assessing the representation of midlatitude cyclones in high‐resolution reanalyses using satellite observed winds

Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies

Australian east coast mid‐latitude cyclones in the 20th Century Reanalysis ensemble

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