2018
DOI: 10.5089/9781484339695.001
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A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle

Abstract: The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, how… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…1 1 Flows of electronics goods such as computer, semiconductors, and cellphones have proven difficult to model (Gruber et al, 2016). Cellphones and semiconductors have proven especially difficult because so much of the value-added comes from imported parts and components (see, e.g., Carton, Mongardini, & Li, 2018, and Cheung et al, 2012). We thus exclude cellphones and semiconductors from our estimation. We use the four leading exporting countries to avoid using countries that did not trade much with each other over part of the sample period, because these trading partners can have large percentage changes in trade due to idiosyncratic factors such as a trading company opening up a new branch rather than due to macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rates and real income.…”
Section: Product Sophistication and Exchange Rate Elasticitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…1 1 Flows of electronics goods such as computer, semiconductors, and cellphones have proven difficult to model (Gruber et al, 2016). Cellphones and semiconductors have proven especially difficult because so much of the value-added comes from imported parts and components (see, e.g., Carton, Mongardini, & Li, 2018, and Cheung et al, 2012). We thus exclude cellphones and semiconductors from our estimation. We use the four leading exporting countries to avoid using countries that did not trade much with each other over part of the sample period, because these trading partners can have large percentage changes in trade due to idiosyncratic factors such as a trading company opening up a new branch rather than due to macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rates and real income.…”
Section: Product Sophistication and Exchange Rate Elasticitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…1 Flows of electronics goods such as computer, semiconductors, and cellphones have proven difficult to model (Gruber et al, 2016). Cellphones and semiconductors have proven especially difficult because so much of the value-added comes from imported parts and components (see, e.g., Carton, Mongardini, & Li, 2018, and Cheung et al, 2012). We thus exclude cellphones and semiconductors from our estimation.…”
Section: Product Sophistication and Exchange Rate Elasticitiesmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Almost every person has a smartphone, especially those who live in a city. Research in 2016 figure out the number of smartphones equivalent to one for every fifth person on earth [2]. Smartphone operating system still dominated by Android which has 75.27% market share worldwide in May 2019 [3].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Because presbyopia is diagnosed in middle-aged or older individuals, its incidence has risen in parallel with the increase in mean population age during the last decades. Handheld screen-enabled devices that include smartphones, tablets, and e-readers have had an exponential increase in use during the last 15 years, starting with the launch of the first iteration of the iPhone in 2007, with annual sales of smartphones numerically surpassing those of personal computers since 2011 3 . Although adoption of handheld screen-enabled devices in older adults has been slower, by 2021, 83% of adults aged 50 to 64 years and 61% of those 65 years or older owned a smartphone, whereas approximately 53% of adults also own a tablet device 4…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%