A Novel Technique to Estimate Biological Parameters in an Epidemiology Problem

Benedito, Antone dos Santos; Santos, Fernando Luiz Pio dos

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-59153-7_10

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 13 publications

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“…The estimation strategy is by looking at the trend trajectory from China. This is based on the assumption that the same pattern of COVID-19 outbreak originated from China will have the same patterns and implications throughout any other places in the world. Five parameters ( ̂ ̂ need to be estimated by using Levenberg-Marquardt Nonlinear Regression technique for curve fitting and parameter estimation [30][31][32][33], which later will be explained in Mathematical Model Description section.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Closed monitoring of Malaysia COVID-19 using SEIR compartmental model for first wave trajectory

Mohamed¹,

Nopiah²,

Ali³

2021

IJATEE

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Malaysia COVID-19 trend trajectory has shown significant improvement since Malaysia employed Movement Control Order (MCO) on 18th Mar 2020. Since then a modified compartmental Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) model has been developed to monitor closely the development on the epidemic. The model introduced early detection factor in order to measure the reliability of the strategy carried out. The closed monitoring is to estimate the current projection of Reproduction Number (R0), a number which a single infected person could outspread the virus to other people, and to forecast in the near future of the number of active cases for several days. This is to show that the strategy carried out by the Malaysian government in order to contain the outbreak whether or not has taken into effect within the period of the first wave of the outbreak. The observation carried out has found out that under the Enhanced MCO (EMCO) or the second MCO showed significant reduction in the number of active cases as well as R0. Not only that the early detection strategy carried out has shown significant improvement of 2.5 to 3.6 times higher than the first MCO.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%