A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

Zechar, J. D.; Zhuang, Jiancang

doi:10.1093/gji/ggu137

Cited by 19 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 59 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We finally applied two scoring methods to the N-and S-tests, the pari-mutuel gambling score, and the Loglikelihood score [Scherbaum et al, 2009;Zechar and Zhuang, 2014] to finally obtain a weight for each ERF.…”

Section: The Final Erfs Their Weighing and The Ensemble Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Visini¹,

Pace²,

Meletti³

et al. 2021

Annals of Geophysics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

show abstract

Section: The Final Erfs Their Weighing and The Ensemble Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Visini¹,

Pace²,

Meletti³

et al. 2021

Annals of Geophysics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The choice of these GMPEs and their relative weights comes from the selection and ranking of the GMPEs for the new Italian hazard map (Lanzano et al, ). In this work, the authors applied the method based on the log‐likelihood value (Scherbaum et al, ) and two novel methods commonly used for general probabilistic forecasts (Gneiting & Raftery, ; Zechar & Zhuang, ). The data set used to select and rank the GMPEs includes more than 4,000 waveforms recorded by more than 1,000 strong motion stations relative to 137 events, among which the events of the 2016 seismic sequence.…”

Section: Seismic Hazard Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Definition of Seismic Input From Fault‐Based PSHA: Remarks After the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This work focuses on how the progress in earthquake science that follows a large, deeply studied earthquake might be promptly combined with updated approaches of seismic hazard analysis to guide applicative choices for seismic risk reduction, such as postevent seismic microzoning and building design. Both seismic microzoning and seismic design of structures require strong motion records to perform numerical site response analyses. These records have to be related to the seismotectonic context and historical seismicity of the investigation area. We first performed a fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the area struck by the 2016 central Italy seismic sequence to individuate reference uniform hazard spectra at rock conditions. We used two different seismic hazard models, one considering 27 individual seismogenic sources (ISSs), and the second one involving grid point seismicity, using a fixed-radius smoothing approach. The geological and seismotectonic data of the 2016 seismic sequence were used to update the model of ISSs. We performed a deaggregation analysis to evaluate the contribution of the ISS in the hazard of four representative sites and to select the magnitude-distance pairs useful in the selection of the real accelerograms. The deaggregation analysis has been performed to identify which source and magnitude most contribute to the hazard for each site, and for different periods of spectral accelerations. Finally, we select, for each site, a set of natural accelerograms, from both nonimpulsive and pulse-like records, based on the magnitude-distance pairs that are compatible on average with target uniform hazard spectra.

show abstract

“…Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Zechar and Zhuang (2014) that use the probability of each prediction per bin. In this test, each model is relatively compared and the test has the advantage that it limits the value of one bin (between À1 and 1), whereas the R-test and T-test can have an unbounded value for one bin.…”

Section: 1029/2017jb015108mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hybrid ETAS‐Coulomb Approach to Forecast Spatiotemporal Aftershock Rates

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aftershock sequences are an ideal testing ground for operational earthquake forecasting models as they contain relatively large numbers of earthquakes clustered in time and space. To date, most successful forecast models have been statistical, building on empirical observations of aftershock decay with time and earthquake size frequency distributions. Another approach is to include Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock which influence the spatial location of the aftershocks although these models have generally not performed as well as the statistical ones. Here we develop a new hybrid Epidemic‐Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)/Coulomb model which attempts to overcome the limitations of its predecessors by redistributing forecast rate from negatively to positively stressed regions based on observations in the model learning period of the percentage of events occurring in those positively stressed regions. We test this model against the 1992 Landers aftershock sequence using three different ETAS kernels and five different models for slip in the Landers earthquake. We also consider two variations of rate redistribution, one based on a fixed value and the other variable depending on the percentage of aftershocks observed in positively stressed Coulomb regions during the learning period. We find that the latter model performs at least as well as ETAS on its own in all tests and better than ETAS in 14 of 15 tests in which we forecast successive 24‐hr periods. Our results suggest that including Coulomb stress changes can improve operational earthquake forecasting models.

show abstract

A parimutuel gambling perspective to compare probabilistic seismicity forecasts

Cited by 19 publications

References 59 publications

Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Definition of Seismic Input From Fault‐Based PSHA: Remarks After the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence

A Hybrid ETAS‐Coulomb Approach to Forecast Spatiotemporal Aftershock Rates

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About