Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Visini, Francesco; Pace, Bruno; Meletti, Carlo; Marzocchi, Warner; Akinci, Aybige; Azzaro, Raffaele; Barani, Simone; Barberi, G.; Barreca, Giovanni; Basili, Roberto; Bird, Peter; Bonini, Marco; Burrato, Pierfrancesco; Busetti, Martina; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Cocina, O.; Console, Rodolfo; Corti, Giacomo; D’Agostino, N.; D’Amico, S.; Marzocchi, Warner; Cin, Michela Dal; Falcone, Giuseppe; Fracassi, Umberto; Gee, Robin; Kastelic, Vanja; Lai, Carlo G.; Langer, H.; Maesano, Francesco Emanuele; Marchesini, Andrea; Martelli, Luca; Monaco, Carmelo; Murru, Maura; Peruzza, Laura; Poli, Maria Eliana; Pondrelli, Silvia; Rebez, A.; Rotondi, R.; Rovida, Andrea; Sani, Federico; Santulin, M.; Scafidi, Davide; Selva, Jacopo; Slejko, D.; Spallarossa, Daniele; Tamaro, Alberto; Tarabusi, Gabriele; Taroni, Matteo; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Tusa, Giuseppina; Tuvè, Tiziana; Valensise, Gianluca; Vannoli, Paola; Varini, Elisa; Zanferrari, Adriano; Zuccolo, Elisa

doi:10.4401/ag-8608

Cited by 19 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 87 publications

(123 reference statements)

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“…Recently, a new seismic hazard assessment for Italy, considering a large set of pseudospectral accelerations as the ground motion IM, has been released by Meletti et al (2021). PSHA is developed via ninety-four seismic source models weighted according to statistical performances in describing the earthquake occurrences and taking into account an experts' elicitation process (Visini et al 2021). The ensemble of the models are combined, via a logic tree approach, with a set of selected ground motion prediction (1)…”

Section: Input Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, a set of new seismic hazard models for Italy, named MPS19, was developed as a possible update of the previous source model for the country (Meletti et al 2021;Visini et al 2021). The objective of the simple study presented herein is to discuss the seismic hazard assessment for Italy in terms of MS intensity, considering the MCS scale and adopting a source model, not coincident with, yet based on, MPS19 (and retaining its name herein).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Macroseismic intensity hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid source model

Cito

Chioccarelli

Iervolino

2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Seismic hazard maps from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis or PSHA collect, at different sites, the values of the (site-specific) ground motion intensity measures of interest that, taken individually, have the same exceedance return period. For large-scale analyses, a widely used intensity measure is the macroseismic (MS) intensity, that provides an assessment of the earthquake effect based on the observed consequences in the hit area. Hazard maps can be developed in terms of MS intensity, and some examples exist in this respect. In the case of Italy, the last MS hazard map is based on the same seismic source model (known as MPS04) adopted to derive the design seismic actions of the current building code, a study dating more than ten years ago. It provides results in terms of countrywide Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg (MCS) intensity level with 475 years return period. This short paper presents and discusses MCS probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid-seismicity source model, herein named MPS19, synthetizing the large effort of a wide scientific community. The results, which are obtained by means of classical PSHA, are given in the form of maps referring to the 475 years return period, and also others of earthquake engineering interest. Moreover, it is discussed that the return period does not univocally identifies the MS intensity because, although MS is, by definition, a discrete random variable, it is modelled, in a given earthquake, by means of a normal distribution, that is, treated as continuous. Thus, the maps of the minimum return period causing the occurrence or exceedance of different MCS intensities are also provided. Finally, the comparison between the 475 years return period hazard map presented and the one which is currently the point of reference in Italy, that is, computed using MPS04, is briefly discussed. All the computed maps are made available to the reader as supplemental material.

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Section: Input Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Macroseismic intensity hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid source model

Cito

Chioccarelli

Iervolino

2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…A recent project led by the Seismic Hazard Centre (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and funded by the Italian Civil Protection Department produced a new timeindependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model for Italy, called Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019 (MPS19; Meletti et al, 2021). The model consists of a suite of earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) and ground motion models (GMMs), described in Visini et al (2021) and Lanzano et al (2020), respectively, that are based on updated and new data acquired in the last decade after the release of the current reference Italian seismic hazard model in 2004-2006(MPS04, Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2004Stucchi et al, 2011), which is currently adopted as seismic input in the Italian building code (NTC, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ZS16 of the MA4 model incorporates a number of different parameters for each defined area source: (a) geographical boundaries, (b) top and bottom depth of the seismogenic layer, (c) hypocentre distribution, and (d) style of faulting. For each area source of ZS16, MA4 uses five alternative frequency-magnitude distributions, providing the annual rates of all earthquakes with M w ≥ 4.5, which is the threshold magnitude adopted in MPS19 (Meletti et al, 2021;Visini et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy

Visini

Meletti

Rovida

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. A new probabilistic seismic hazard model, called Modello di Pericolosità Sismica 2019 (MPS19), has been recently proposed for the Italian territory, as a result of the efforts of a large national scientific community. This model is based on 11 groups of earthquake rupture forecast inputs and, particularly, on 5 area-source seismogenic models, including the so-called MA4 model. Data-driven procedures were followed in MA4 to evaluate seismogenic parameters of each area source, such as upper and lower seismogenic depths, hypocentral-depth distributions, and nodal planes. In a few cases, expert judgement or ad hoc assumptions were necessary due to the scarcity of data. MA4 consists of 20 seismicity models that consider epistemic uncertainty in the estimations of the completeness periods of the earthquake catalogue, of maximum magnitude values and of seismicity rates. In particular, five approaches were adopted to calculate the rates, in the form of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution. The first approach estimated seismicity rates using earthquakes located in each area source, while the other approaches firstly calculated the seismicity rates for groups of areas considered tectonically homogeneous and successively partitioned in different ways the values to the area forming each group. The results obtained in terms of seismic hazard estimates highlight that the uncertainty explored by the 20 seismicity models of MA4 is at least of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty due to alternative ground motion models.

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Comparison Between Two Methodologies for Assessing Historical Earthquake Parameters and Their Impact on Seismicity Rates in the Western Alps

Provost

Antonucci

Rovida

et al. 2022

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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We investigate the differences in seismicity rate estimates from two historical earthquake catalogues obtained with two methodologies (Boxer and QUake-MD) calibrated on a common dataset of macroseismic intensities and calibration events. The two methodologies were then applied to a test data set of historical earthquakes covering the France, Italy and Switzerland Alpine region. Differences between the resulting magnitude estimates and instrumental magnitudes show a standard deviation of 0.4 for both methodologies, with a mean residual of 0.01 for Boxer and -0.04 for Quake-MD. A systematic difference in magnitude estimates between the two methodologies that correlates with the depth estimated by Quake-MD has been observed. This is attributed to the difference in the treatment of the depth parameter between Boxer and QUake-MD. Nevertheless, differences in magnitude estimates between the two methodologies show a mean residual of 0.006 and a standard deviation of 0.35 resulting in seismicity rates that are not significantly different considering the associated uncertainties. Such results made us believe that the European community could gain in the reduction of epistemic uncertainties associated with the estimate of historical earthquake parameters by agreeing on a common macroseismic and calibration dataset across borders. These efforts should be strongly encouraged. On the other hand, we show that even in the ideal conditions of this benchmark (same calibration events and same macroseismic intensity dataset), methodological differences can lead to systematic differences in magnitude estimates. It is therefore paramount to explore different methodologies for a more realistic quantification of the epistemic uncertainties in estimates of maximum magnitudes and seismic activity rates.

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Earthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy

Cited by 19 publications

References 87 publications

Macroseismic intensity hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid source model

Macroseismic intensity hazard maps for Italy based on a recent grid source model

An updated area-source seismogenic model (MA4) for seismic hazard of Italy

Comparison Between Two Methodologies for Assessing Historical Earthquake Parameters and Their Impact on Seismicity Rates in the Western Alps

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