A policy maker’s dilemma: Preventing terrorism or preventing blame

McGraw, A. Peter; Todorov, Alexander; Kunreuther, Howard

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.01.004

Cited by 35 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Intent matters crucially to social cognition: intent for good or ill is one of the earliest and most basic judgments people make about each other. If intentional harms seem worse than they truly are, society may spend more money on them than on objectively more damaging harms (33,43). A possible motivated account of this phenomenon acknowledges the nonrational biases in damage estimates and potential impact on policy priorities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived intent motivates people to magnify observed harms

Ames

Fiske

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Existing moral psychology research commonly explains certain phenomena in terms of a motivation to blame. However, this motivation is not measured directly, but rather is inferred from other measures, such as participants' judgments of an agent's blameworthiness. The present paper introduces new methods for assessing this theoretically important motivation, using tools drawn from animal-model research. We test these methods in the context of recent "harm-magnification" research, which shows that people often overestimate the damage caused by intentional (versus unintentional) harms. A preliminary experiment exemplifies this work and also rules out an alternative explanation for earlier harm-magnification results. Exp. 1 asks whether intended harm motivates blame or merely demonstrates the actor's intrinsic blameworthiness. Consistent with a motivational interpretation, participants freely chose blaming, condemning, and punishing over other appealing tasks in an intentional-harm condition, compared with an unintentional-harm condition. Exp. 2 also measures motivation but with converging indicators of persistence (effort, rate, and duration) in blaming. In addition to their methodological contribution, these studies also illuminate people's motivational responses to intentional harms. Perceived intent emerges as catalyzing a motivated social cognitive process related to social prediction and control.intent | motivation | harm | blame | morality

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceived intent motivates people to magnify observed harms

Ames

Fiske

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Tetlock and Mellers (2011) describe this process as accountability ping-pong. One escape from this cycle is to make a public organizational commitment to using tournaments to monitor long-term accuracy, not just avoidance of the most recent mistake (McGraw, Todorov, & Kunreuther, 2011).…”

Section: Drivers Of Prediction Accuracy In World Politicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Mellers¹,

Stone²,

Atanasov³

et al. 2015

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied

137

130

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This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and openmindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. A t APA, we understand how challenging it can be for you to stay abreast of the latest and best academic research on psychology. Disciplines Finance and Financial Management | Social and Behavioral Sciences

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“…So, what does the literature predict? For starters, that actors (that is, public office holders such as politicians and directors of agencies) are focusing more on how to minimize blame than on claiming credit for successful policies (Weaver ), because if something goes wrong, the public will focus more on what went wrong than on what went well (Rozin and Royzman ; McGraw et al ). This so‐called negativity bias could result in someone having to resign or losing their re‐election battle – hence actors' preoccupation with avoiding and minimizing blame.…”

Section: Blame and Blame Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Weaver ; Hood ), psychology (cf. Rozin and Royzman ; McGraw et al ), and business administration (cf. Brinson and Benoit ; Coombs ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Traditional Responses to Blame Games Fail: The Importance of Context, Rituals, and Sub‐blame Games in the Face of Raves Gone Wrong

Resodihardjo

Carroll

Eijk

et al. 2015

Public Administration

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Following crises and fiascos, a framing contest takes place in which actors have to account for their actions and might get blamed for what went wrong. An inadequate response to blame can lead to resignation or losing a re‐election. Currently, the literature on blame games focuses mainly on the policy, agency, and – especially – presentational strategies one can use to respond to blame. Based on our analysis of the blame games following two festival disasters in Germany and the Netherlands, we show that our current understanding of blame games and blame responses needs to be broadened to include context, rituals, and sub‐blame games.

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A policy maker’s dilemma: Preventing terrorism or preventing blame

Cited by 35 publications

References 48 publications

Perceived intent motivates people to magnify observed harms

Perceived intent motivates people to magnify observed harms

The psychology of intelligence analysis: Drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

Why Traditional Responses to Blame Games Fail: The Importance of Context, Rituals, and Sub‐blame Games in the Face of Raves Gone Wrong

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