A polygenic score for educational attainment partially predicts voter turnout

Abstract

Twin and adoption studies have shown that individual differences in political participation can be explained, in part, by genetic variation. However, these research designs cannot identify which genes are related to voting or the pathways through which they exert influence, and their conclusions rely on possibly restrictive assumptions. In this study, we use three different US samples and a Swedish sample to test whether genes that have been identified as associated with educational attainment, one of the strongest correlates of political participation, predict self-reported and validated voter turnout. We find that a polygenic score capturing individuals’ genetic propensity to acquire education is significantly related to turnout. The strongest associations we observe are in second-order midterm elections in the United States and European Parliament elections in Sweden, which tend to be viewed as less important by voters, parties, and the media and thus present a more information-poor electoral environment for citizens to navigate. A within-family analysis suggests that individuals’ education-linked genes directly affect their voting behavior, but, for second-order elections, it also reveals evidence of genetic nurture. Finally, a mediation analysis suggests that educational attainment and cognitive ability combine to account for between 41% and 63% of the relationship between the genetic propensity to acquire education and voter turnout.

The genetics of political participation: Leveraging polygenic indices to advance political behavior research

“…Thus, to a certain degree, the between-family estimates (circles) may pick up effects of genetic nurture and population stratification. In accordance with previous studies on the effects of the EA PGI on various outcomes, we hypothesize that the bulk of the difference between the between-and within-family estimates is due to genetic nurture effects Dawes et al, 2021) (although as previously mentioned, the within-family estimates may also be "overcorrected" toward zero due to attenuation bias in within-family models).…”

“…To put the effects of the ten psychological and health trait PGIs on the participatory outcomes in perspective, the first row in each panel displays corresponding estimates for the educational attainment (EA) PGI. As recently established by Dawes et al (2021) and Aarøe et al (2021), education linked genes are significantly related to validated and self-reported voter turnout. We extend these results by showing that the EA PGI is also positively associated with an index measuring non-voting participatory acts.…”

“…PGIs of interest can be compared. PGIs for educational attainment have a moderate level of predictive power and two studies have recently established that PGIs for education are related to voter turnout (Dawes et al, 2021;Aarøe et al, 2021).…”

Genes, personality, and political behavior

“… 18 Another analysis by Dawes et al (2021) found that a PGI measuring the genetic propensity for education predicted voter turnout. …”

Between nature and nurture: The genetic overlap between psychological attributes and selection into public service employment

“…This approach assumes that most human traits and behaviors are explained by both genetic makeup and social environment. Other related social science disciplines, such as political science, economics, and generic management have already incorporated biological insights into their research (Barth et al, 2020; Beauchamp et al, 2011; Dawes et al, 2014; Dawes et al, 2021; Fowler et al, 2008; Nofal et al, 2018). For example, within political science, a new subfield, “biopolitics” has been developed to study political behaviors and attitudes, such as voting, political ideology, and participation (Dawes et al, 2014; Dawes et al, 2021; Fowler et al, 2008).…”