A laboratory test has three phases, pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical. The purpose of this review is to highlight an issue concerning the analytical phase of one of the most widely deployed groups of in vitro diagnostic tests using a common technology -namely immunoassay.Immunoassay entails an inherently high error rate and, therefore, has the potential for inaccurate and misleading results susceptible to misinterpretation and/or diagnostic misapplication by clinicians. An approach based on Bayesian inference (without mathematics or equations) -illustrated by examples -is presented; this may help clinicians in discerning potentially erroneous results even when they appear plausible and not unreasonable.Essentially, false positive results are most likely to occur when the disease prevalence/incidence is low. False negative results become more prominent when the prevalence/ incidence of disease increases. When concern is raised, available follow-up laboratory tests should be initiated to establish with confidence the diagnostic reliability or unreliability of such results. KEYWORDS : Bayesian principle , false negative , false positive , immunoassays , misdiagnosis , reliability
IntroductionLaboratory tests are commonly used in the diagnosis and management of disease, and millions of tests on a wide range of analytes are requested annually by clinicians in the UK. Clinical summaries on request forms may be scant or absent; conversely, analytical results received by clinicians are generally regarded as accurate and reliable and, if plausible, are accepted as diagnostic. The purpose of this review is to highlight the element of risk in this rationale for certain tests with limited accuracy. Unquestioning acceptance at face value may lead to misdiagnosis and mistreatment or unnecessary surgery for unconfirmed disease with consequent iatrogenic morbidity.
1-9A probabilistic rationale based on Bayes' theorem 1 -in which key information, such as (a) the rate of inherent analytical error in a test and (b) the disease prevalence (number of cases per head of ABSTRACT When laboratory tests can mislead even when they appear plausible population) or incidence (rate of new cases over a period of time), is taken into account -can be used to evaluate the likelihood of an erroneous result occurring and its nature, ie false positive or false negative. Essentially, in disorders with low prevalence/incidence and/or when a test is used as a screen with vague or insufficient clinical correlates, erroneous results are likely to be false positives. On the other hand, when the disease prevalence/incidence is high and the index of suspicion is significant with good clinical correlates, erroneous results are more likely to be false negative.
ImmunoassaysImmunoassays (the largest in vitro diagnostic technology worldwide (Box 1 )) have an analytical error rate of 0.4-4%, which is considerably higher than other routine tests such as renal and liver function tests or full blood count.
1-9Abnormal results, including false positives...