13In the vicinity of a tipping point, critical transitions occur when small changes in an input condition causes 14 sudden, large and often irreversible changes in the state of a system. Many natural systems ranging from 15 ecosystems to molecular biosystems are known to exhibit critical transitions in their response to stochastic 16 perturbations. In diseases, an early prediction of upcoming critical transitions from a healthy to a dis-17 ease state by using early warning signals is of prime interest due to potential application in forecasting 18 disease onset. Here, we analyze cell-fate transitions between different phenotypes (epithelial, hybrid epithe-19 lial/mesenchymal (E/M) and mesenchymal states) that are implicated in cancer metastasis and chemoresis-20 tance. These transitions are mediated by a mutually inhibitory feedback loop microRNA-200/ZEB driven 21 by the levels of transcription factor SNAIL. We find that the proximity to tipping points enabling these 22 transitions among different phenotypes can be captured by critical slowing down based early warning sig-23 nals, calculated from the trajectory of ZEB mRNA level. Further, the basin stability analysis reveals the 24 unexpectedly large basin of attraction for a hybrid E/M phenotype. Finally, we identified mechanisms that 25 can potentially elude the transition to a hybrid E/M phenotype. Overall, our results unravel the early warn- 26 ing signals that can be used to anticipate upcoming epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal transitions. With the 27 emerging evidence about the hybrid E/M phenotype being a key driver of metastasis, drug resistance, and 28 tumor relapse; our results suggest ways to potentially evade these transitions, reducing the fitness of cancer 29 cells and restricting tumor aggressiveness. 30 Keywords: critical transition | indicators of critical slowing down | alternative stable states | epithelial-31 hybrid-mesenchymal transition | cancer biology 32 1 This article contains supplementary materials. 2 sudipta@iitrpr.ac.in 3 h.levine@northeastern.edu 4 mkjolly@iisc.ac.in 5 parthasharathi@iitrpr.ac.in Significance Statement 33Epithelial-hybrid-mesenchymal transitions play critical roles in cancer metastasis, drug resistance, and tumor 34 relapse. Recent studies have proposed that cells in a hybrid epithelial/mesenchymal phenotype may be more 35 aggressive than those on either end of the spectrum. However, no biomarker to predict upcoming transitions 36 has been identified. Here, we show that critical slowing down based early warning signals can detect sudden 37 transitions among epithelial, hybrid E/M, and mesenchymal phenotypes. Importantly, our results highlight 38 how stable a hybrid E/M phenotype can be, and how can a transition to this state be avoided. Thus, our 39 study provides valuable insights into restricting cellular plasticity en route metastasis.
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Introduction
41Biological systems often display nonlinear dynamics and emergent complex behavior, and consequent multi-42 stability [1, 2]. This nonlinear behavior in many ...