A power-flow emulator approach for resilience assessment of repairable power grids subject to weather-induced failures and data deficiency

Abstract

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd A generalised uncertainty quantification framework for resilience assessment of weather-coupled, repairable power grids is presented. The framework can be used to efficiently quantify both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty affecting grid-related and weather-related factors. The power grid simulator has been specifically designed to model interactions between severe weather conditions and grid dynamic states and behaviours, such as weather-induced failures or delays in components replacements. A resilience index is computed by adopting a novel algorithm which exploits a vectorised emulator of the power-flow solver to reduce the computational efforts. The resilience stochastic modelling framework is embedded into a non-intrusive generalised stochastic framework, which enables the analyst to quantify the effect of parameters imprecision. A modified version of the IEEE 24 nodes reliability test system has been used as representative case study. The surrogate-based model and the Power-Flow-based model are compared, and the results show similar accuracy but enhanced efficiency of the former. Global sensitivity of the resilience index to increasing imprecision in parameters of the probabilistic model has been analysed. The relevance of specific weather/grid unc ertain factors is highlighted by global sensitivity analysis and the importance of dealing with imprecision in the information clearly emerges

A new robust dynamic Bayesian network approach for disruption risk assessment under the supply chain ripple effect

“…Chen et al (2017) study a short-term hydro-windthermal scheduling problem and develop a probabilityinterval based optimisation model to evaluate the reliability. Rocchetta, Zio, and Patelli (2018) study the resilience assessment problem of repairable power grids under data scarcity. The authors agree with the validity of introducing probability intervals to quantify the existing uncertainty caused by lacking historical data, and establish a stochastic programming model combined with probability intervals.…”

Transmission line unavailability due to correlated threat exposure

“…The method of moments approach is used to ensure that the mean and variance found in the data is maintained. The mean (2) and variance (3) of the outage duration data is used to fit the parameters of the lognormal distribution in (4) and (5). D represents the random variable of outage duration, while d i represents the unique outage duration observations in hours.…”

“…Although there are no commonly accepted definition of resilience in the power systems domain, a proposed definition is found in [4] as "the ability to withstand and reduce the magnitude and/or duration of disruptive events, which includes the capability to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from such an event". In [5], it is argued that "a main difference between a reliable power grid and a resilient power grid is that, in the latter, low probabilityhigh consequence events (e.g. extreme weather events) are specifically considered and handled, with the ability to learn from past occurrences".…”

A Probabilistic Cascading Failure Model for Dynamic Operating Conditions

“…Examples include the ORNL-PSerc-Alaska (OPA) model [5]- [7], Manchester model [8], Hidden failure model [9], topology-based model [10]- [14], CASCADE model [15] and the branching process model [16] to simulate and analyze the impact of cascading failures on power systems. The developed failure models can be grouped into three different categories: (1) topology-based [10]- [14], (2) DC/AC-based [5]- [9], [17]- [19], and (3) statistical models [15], [16]. Topology-based models, motivated by the complex network methods [20]- [22], represent power systems as a large-scale network in which failures spread from a node to its neighbors.…”