A Precursor to Muth: Tinbergen's 1932 Model of Rational Expectations

Keuzenkamp, Hugo A.

doi:10.2307/2234439

Cited by 18 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…6 To a certain extent, Mills' (1957) analysis of inventory optimization by the firm may be considered as a predecessor. Keuzenkamp (1991) has documented, convincingly, the claim that Tinbergen was the first to introduce the same concept in 1932. a simple arbitrage reasoning, that individuals' expectations, on average, have to coincide with the predictions provided by economic theory:…”

Section: The Rationalization Of Rational Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 96%

A Critique of Adaptive and Rational Expectations

Gertchev

2007

Quart J Austrian Econ

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In contemporary economic theory, and especially in macroeconomics, expectations are being given a central place. There is virtually no economic model that does not examine how, within a dynamic perspective, the explicit account of individuals' expectations qualifies the conclusions of the static analysis. To a certain extent this prominent place is well founded, for expectations of future events do motivate present actions and thereby influence social phenomena as they occur in reality. However, contemporary macroeconomists go a step further. They also maintain that a specific model of the formation of expectations is necessary in order to assess the role played by expectations, and ultimately to build economic theory itself. 1 The goal of this paper is not to study the foundation of this point of view, or the proper way for economists to fathom the importance of expectations. Its more limited scope is to examine to what extent the two most common models of expectations formation attain their end. This end is to convey and exemplify the role expectations play in the manifestation of even the most basic economic phenomena, such as the determination of quantities produced and the formation of prices.Expectations are the unobservable opinions about the future that individuals form in their minds. In the absence of a clear-cut conclusion from cognitive sciences as to the objective, observable, determinants of human thoughts, economic models of expectations formation can be but arbitrary assumptions. From this standpoint, these

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Section: The Rationalization Of Rational Expectationsmentioning

confidence: 96%

A Critique of Adaptive and Rational Expectations

Gertchev

2007

Quart J Austrian Econ

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“…In addition, he embarked on empirical studies of dynamics in specific markets, ranging from potato flour to ship building. In the course of this work, Tinbergen developed ideas similar to the 1961 rational expectation hypothesis of Muth (Keuzenkamp 1991). After the 1929 stock exchange crash, the issue of unemployment came high on the agenda.…”

Section: From Physics To Economicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Jan Tinbergen on Dutch Economic Policy

Don

2019

De Economist

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From the mid-1920s to the early 1960s, Jan Tinbergen was actively engaged in discussions about Dutch economic policy. He was the first director of the Central Planning Bureau, from 1945 to 1955. It took quite some time and effort to find an effective role for this Bureau vis-à-vis the political decision makers in the REA, a subgroup of the Council of Ministers. Partly as a result of that, Tinbergen's direct influence on Dutch (macro)economic policy appears to have been rather small until 1950. In that year two new advisory bodies were established, the Social and Economic Council (SER) and the Central Economic Committee. Tinbergen was an influential member of both, which effectively raised his impact on economic policy. In the early fifties he played an important role in shaping the Dutch consensus economy. In addition, his indirect influence has been substantial, as the methods and tools that he developed gained widespread acceptance in the Netherlands and in many other countries.

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“…Porém, provavelmente corroborando a idéia de que o princípio das expectativas racionais é bastante natural, Keuzenkamp (1991) registra que a primeira visão sobre esse assunto foi, na verdade, traduzida por Tinbergen quase 30 anos mais cedo que o trabalho de Muth, ou seja, 1932. Keuzenkamp (1991) mostra que o trabalho de Tinbergen (1932) estruturava-se considerando que consumidores e produtores maximizavam suas respectivas funções de utilidade e de lucro, considerando um determinado horizonte de tempo e tendo em conta os preços esperados. O resultado dessa ação independente, pressupunha o modelo, levaria a resultados inconsistentes, obrigando a realização de ajustes de modo que os excessos de oferta e demanda se eliminariam, compatibilizando os diferentes planos no período corrente.…”

Section: ) U'(c T ) = E[u'(c T + 1 )]unclassified

“…Comparando as contribuições de Tinbergen (1932) e Muth (1961), Keuzenkamp identifica grande semelhança e, considera que a idéia das expectativas racionais poderia ter sido conhecida bem antes, não tivesse o trabalho de Tinbergen sido redigido em alemão (KEUZENKAMP, 1991) De qualquer modo, Muth expressou explicitamente a idéia de que os agentes agem formando expectativas com base no conjunto de informações disponíveis. Entretanto, a exemplo do trabalho de Tinbergen, as idéias de Muth, pelas razões apresentadas permaneceram inexploradas até o advento das contribuições de Lucas a partir de 1962.…”

Section: ) U'(c T ) = E[u'(c T + 1 )]unclassified

Racionalidade E Irracionalidade No Processo Decisório De Consumo

Ângelo¹,

Luppe²,

Fouto³

2010

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RESUMO: Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o processo decisório de consumo considerando a evolução recente do mercado varejista no Brasil. Existem duas perspectivas. Para alguns importantes autores, os consumidores são racionais em suas escolhas. A idéia da racionalidade é a de que as pessoas consideram toda a informação que está disponível. Isto não significa que elas não cometem erros, mas significa que elas aprendem e ajustam seu comportamento durante a experiência. Se isto realmente é verdadeiro, isso implica que o passado explica completamente o nível atual de consumo. O segundo enfoque considera que os indivíduos não são capazes de escolher a melhor alternativa. Seguindo estas idéias, diferentes autores enfatizam que existem muitas limitações para as pessoas terem acesso a todas as informações disponíveis para alcançar decisões lógicas. Levando em consideração estes elementos teóricos e trabalhando com dados do mercado de consumo no Brasil, este trabalho conclue que as evidências conduzem para a hipótese da racionalidade limitada.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: consumo, racionalidade, racionalidade limitada, expectativas adaptadas, expectativas racionais.ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to analyze rationality of consumption process considering the recent evolution of retail market in Brazil. There are two perspectives. For some important authors, consumers are rational in their choices. The idea of rationality is that people consider all information that is available. This does not mean that they do not committee mistakes, but it means that they learn and adjust their behavior throught out the experience. If this is really true it implies that the past explain completely the current consumption level. The second approach considers that individuals are not able to choose the best alternative. Following these ideas, many different authors stress that there are many limitations for people to access all information available to reach a logical decisions. Taking in consideration these theoretical elements and working with data from Brazil consumer market, this paper concludes that the evidences back the bounded racionality hypothesis.

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A Precursor to Muth: Tinbergen's 1932 Model of Rational Expectations

Cited by 18 publications

References 20 publications

A Critique of Adaptive and Rational Expectations

A Critique of Adaptive and Rational Expectations

The Influence of Jan Tinbergen on Dutch Economic Policy

Racionalidade E Irracionalidade No Processo Decisório De Consumo

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