A predictive model of societal landslide risk in Italy

Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Napolitano, E.; Bianchi, Cinzia

doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.021

Cited by 73 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Estimates of societal risk involve complex factors, and implications, and inter alia depend on the number of visitors in addition to the length of their exposure time. Furthermore, cost–benefit analyses including the evaluation of economic losses are outside the scope of this study and may lead to other conclusions for decision making 71 , 73 , 120 . Nevertheless, our individual risk analysis provides a first fundamental step towards carrying out a comprehensive risk assessment.…”

Section: Temporal Rates Of Major Explosions and Paroxysms Conditionalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…volcanologists, guides, and tourists) could spend in the summit zones most exposed to the related hazards 61 , 77 . We remark that our estimates are illustrative of the methodology and based only on the individual risk of fatality, since we do not assess societal risk or economical loss 71 , 73 , 120 . Moreover, we do not consider the spatial component of risk exposure and assume an exposed person is lethally vulnerable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification

Bevilacqua

Bertagnini

Pompilio

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Stromboli volcano (Italy), always active with low energy explosive activity, is a very attractive place for visitors, scientists, and inhabitants of the island. Nevertheless, occasional more intense eruptions can present a serious danger. This study focuses on the modeling and estimation of their inter-event time and temporal rate. With this aim we constructed a new historical catalog of major explosions and paroxysms through a detailed review of scientific literature of the last ca. 140 years. The catalog includes the calendar date and phenomena descriptions for 180 explosive events, of which 36 were paroxysms. We evaluated the impact of the main sources of uncertainty affecting the historical catalog. In particular, we categorized as uncertain 45 major explosions that reportedly occurred before 1985 and tested the effect of excluding these events from our analysis. Moreover, after analyzing the entire record in the period [1879, 2020], we separately considered, as sequences, events in [1879, 1960] and in [1985, 2020] because of possible under recording issues in the period [1960, 1985]. Our new models quantify the temporal rate of major explosions and paroxysms as a function of time passed since the last event occurred. Recurrence hazard levels are found to be significantly elevated in the weeks and months following a major explosion or paroxysm, and then gradually decrease over longer periods. Computed hazard functions are also used to illustrate a methodology for estimating order-of-magnitude individual risk of fatality under certain basis conditions. This study represents a first quantitatively formal advance in determining long-term hazard levels at Stromboli.

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Section: Temporal Rates Of Major Explosions and Paroxysms Conditionalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification

Bevilacqua

Bertagnini

Pompilio

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Several global-scale works highlighted that China, Japan, India, and Italy are among the countries most exposed to landslide risk (Petley, 2012;Dowling and Santi, 2014;Haque et al, 2016;Kirschbaum et al, 2015). In Italy, in particular, landslides along with floods are a very recurring phenomenon: over 15,000 landslide events news can be found in online newspapers from 2011 according to results of the semantic engine developed by Battistini et al (2013); from 2000 to 2018, landslides have been responsible for over 250 fatalities and for about 5.6 billion € of damages (Rossi et al, 2019). As a consequence, several attempts of reducing their impact have been made, both by the public authorities and the scientific community, sometimes also working in strict collaboration (Melillo et al, 2016;Segoni et al 2018a;Tiranti et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Definition of 3D rainfall thresholds to increase operative landslide early warning system performances

et al. 2020

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Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are commonly used in regional-scale landslide warning systems. In this manuscript, 3D thresholds are defined also considering the mean rainfall amount fallen in each alert zone (MeAR, mean areal rainfall) in Emilia Romagna region (Northern Italy). In the proposed 3D approach, thresholds are represented by a plane instead of a line, and the third dimension allows to indirectly account for the influence of complex rainfall patterns. MeAR values are calculated according to different time periods ranging from 7 to 30 days, and all threshold parameters are calibrated independently for the 8 alert zones in which the region is divided. The approach was validated and compared with classical intensity-duration thresholds, finding that the 3D threshold may be used to get better performances, especially in terms of a consistent reduction of false alarms:− 20 to − 86%, depending on the alert zone and the selected MeAR duration. These results open new encouraging perspectives for the development of the regional warning system that is operated in the study area.

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“…In the context of hydrogeological risk prevention, urban planners and infrastructure engineers have to deal with the analysis of triggering factors and need instruments for its quantification (Ozturk et al, 2015;Papini et al, 2017;Piciullo et al, 2017;Rossi et al, 2019). In this paper, a back analysis of the meteorological triggers of past hydrogeological events is presented.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, for shallow landslides and debris flows hazard assessment, are considered the rainfall intensity-duration curves (Ceriani et al, 1994;Ciccarese et al, 2020;Gao et al, 2018;Longoni et al, 2011;Olivares et al, 2014;Rappelli, 2008;Rosi et al, 2016;Rossi et al, 2019). These define a rainfall threshold for a specific region on which, taking into account the duration and the average intensity of the rainfall episode, a landslide could be triggered.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorology triggering factors analysis for rainfall induced hydrogeological events in alpine region

Abbate

Papini

Longoni

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper presents an extended back analysis of the major hydrogeological events that occurred in the last 70 years in the alpine area of the Lombardy region, Italy. This work is focused on the description andthe interpretation of the major meteorological triggering factors that have caused these mass movements. The triggering factors for each hydrogeological event were analysed into twofold approaches, with the final intent of ranking their magnitude in terms of consequent damages. Firstly, an analysis of precipitation was conducted using local rain-gauge data, comparing them against rainfall-threshold curves proposed by several authors. Moreover, the return time of precipitation and the information about thespatial extension of the triggering factors were considered for the assessment of an empirical magnitude index of the hydrogeological event. Secondly, considering the currently available meteorological reanalysis database, provided globally by National Centres of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), additional information on the dynamics, the nature and intensity of meteorological triggers were taken into account. The two approaches were compared throughout two indexes that tried to assessthe strength of rainfall phenomena: the first one is empirical while the second one is physical. The results obtained from the application of the two methodologies have been discussed. The rainfall method permits to highlight which are the critical hydrogeological events, not giving any quantitative information about their magnitude. The second approach analyses better the characteristic and the dynamic of meteorological triggers, suggesting, through a physical index, a quantitative ranking of their intensities that has revealed to be a good predictor for the magnitude of hydrogeological rainfall-induced events.

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A predictive model of societal landslide risk in Italy

Cited by 73 publications

References 46 publications

Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification

Major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy): a new historical catalog and temporal models of occurrence with uncertainty quantification

Definition of 3D rainfall thresholds to increase operative landslide early warning system performances

Meteorology triggering factors analysis for rainfall induced hydrogeological events in alpine region

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