A Primacy Effect in Decision-Making by Jurors

Stone, Vernon A.

doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.1969.tb00846.x

Cited by 30 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Similarly, in multiple-choice tasks, in which opinion is based on one-shot experience per option, such as in wine tasting, the first option is more likely to be chosen (Mantonakis et al, 2009). Although the relation between the above examples of primacy and outcome primacy is unclear, we hypothesize that outcome primacy and primacy in belief-updating tasks , such as jurors' decision after a sequence of argumentative speeches or the stating of a personality impression after a sequence of words describing personality traits (Asch, 1946; Cromwell, 1950; Lund, 1925; Peterson & DuCharme, 1967; Stone, 1969), can be explained using a similar theoretical framework.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of first impression in operant learning.

Shteingart¹,

Neiman²,

Loewenstein³

2013

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

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We quantified the effect of first experience on behavior in operant learning and studied its underlying computational principles. To that goal, we analyzed more than 200,000 choices in a repeated-choice experiment. We found that the outcome of the first experience has a substantial and lasting effect on participants' subsequent behavior, which we term outcome primacy. We found that this outcome primacy can account for much of the underweighting of rare events, where participants apparently underestimate small probabilities. We modeled behavior in this task using a standard, model-free reinforcement learning algorithm. In this model, the values of the different actions are learned over time and are used to determine the next action according to a predefined action-selection rule. We used a novel nonparametric method to characterize this action-selection rule and showed that the substantial effect of first experience on behavior is consistent with the reinforcement learning model if we assume that the outcome of first experience resets the values of the experienced actions, but not if we assume arbitrary initial conditions. Moreover, the predictive power of our resetting model outperforms previously published models regarding the aggregate choice behavior. These findings suggest that first experience has a disproportionately large effect on subsequent actions, similar to primacy effects in other fields of cognitive psychology. The mechanism of resetting of the initial conditions that underlies outcome primacy may thus also account for other forms of primacy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of first impression in operant learning.

Shteingart¹,

Neiman²,

Loewenstein³

2013

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

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“…As the Coleman (1968) epigraph suggests, the observation of the changes of beliefs over time should provide all the information about the causal relations between message variables and belief change. For example, the effect of order of message presentation on belief change (e.g., primacy vs. recency; Hovland et al, 1957; Stone, 1969) can be observed merely by looking at the final belief position; however, the process by which the belief changes can be more clearly revealed by its over‐time trajectory, in which the way that the belief changes in response to each piece of message information and in response to cognitive processing may be assessed. Despite its importance, the time course of belief change is little known.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Cognitive Dynamics of Beliefs: The Effect of Information on Message Processing

Chung

Fink

2008

Human Communication Research

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This study investigated the time course of belief change from univalent versus mixedvalence messages, both while the message was being received and after receipt while it was being considered. Hypotheses about the temporal patterns of belief change were tested with belief trajectories from S. E. McGreevy (1996), valid N = 78, with an average number of time points per person = 5,267 (126.41 seconds) for the message-receipt phase and 2,467 (59.22 seconds) for the postmessage phase. Results showed that while receiving a message, beliefs changed according to the value and the order of presentation of information in the message. A greater number of positive belief changes were generated in response to a positive univalent message than to a mixed-valence message. In the postmessage phase, a greater oscillatory pattern of belief change was found for a mixed-valence message than for a univalent message. Theoretical and methodological implications of these findings are discussed.In an ideal world, with no constraints on data collection, the observation of sets of variables over time would provide all the information necessary for laying out the system of causal relations which tied the variables together. (Coleman, 1968, p. 475) Belief change refers to the difference between an initial belief position before receipt of a new message and the subsequent final belief position after processing the message. During message processing, a belief moves from its initial position to its new equilibrium position. But how does the belief change? Does the belief position steadily approach its final position or does it drastically change to the final position at a specific time point, for example, after the message information has been cognitively integrated with the prior constellation of beliefs? These are questions about the time course of belief change.

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“…In contrast, recency effects arise when the last piece of information in a sequence is more influential than the preceding information in persuasion. Empirical work has provided evidence supporting both primacy and recency effects in a wide range of research contexts (e.g., Cromwell, 1950; Hovland & Mandell, 1957; Stone, 1969). However, disagreement exists over which of the two effects is more likely to appear (Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scared Yet Compassionate? Exploring the Order Effects of Threat Versus Suffering Messages on Attitude Toward Scary Victims

McComas

Kretser

et al. 2019

Science Communication

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The order in which individuals receive information about wildlife may influence their attitude toward wildlife differently. We explored order effects of a threat message that induced more fear versus a suffering message that elicited more compassion on attitude toward wildlife. Specifically, we focused on bats, a risk-laden species also suffering massive mortalities due to a disease affecting bat populations across the United States. We randomly assigned 1,506 U.S. adults to one of eight message conditions as part of a 2 (message order: suffering → threat vs. threat → suffering) × 2 (suffering messages) × 2 (threat messages) between-subjects factorial design or a control (no message) condition. We found a significant two-way interaction between message order and biospheric values on attitude toward bats. For people with high biospheric values, reading a suffering message first led to a more positive attitude than reading a threat message first, whereas reading a threat message first led to a more positive attitude than reading a suffering message first for people with low biospheric values. Compassion but not fear mediated these effects. Theoretical and practical implications are provided.

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A Primacy Effect in Decision-Making by Jurors

Cited by 30 publications

References 0 publications

The role of first impression in operant learning.

The role of first impression in operant learning.

The Cognitive Dynamics of Beliefs: The Effect of Information on Message Processing

Scared Yet Compassionate? Exploring the Order Effects of Threat Versus Suffering Messages on Attitude Toward Scary Victims

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