A probabilistic approach for analysis of uncertainty in the evaluation of watershed management practices

Arabi, Mazdak; Govindaraju, Rao S.; Hantush, Mohamed M.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.09.012

Cited by 164 publications

(107 citation statements)

References 28 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

103

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Given the fair agreement between observed and simulated streamflow, and between the observed and simulated sediment yields, the model was assumed to be fit for further scenario analysis. Also, the fact that uncertainty related to the predicted relative changes of scenario outcomes can be assumed to be considerably smaller than the prediction uncertainty of absolute model outcomes was taken into consideration (Arabi et al 2007. Table 5 The erosion rate reduction for the key crops and the sediment reduction for the entire basin and the downstream reservoirs for each of the adoption levels studied (% in parentheses is change relative to baseline).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT

Hunink¹,

Niadas

Antonaropoulos

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A measurement campaign was carried out in the Upper Tana basin (Kenya) to quantify soil erosion and reservoir sedimentation rates, including a bathymetric reservoir survey and sediment load sampling during one year. Then, distributed soil erosion modelling was performed to study sediment budgets throughout the basin and to evaluate the potential of upstream erosion control through vegetated contour strips and check dams. Finally, the areas where these measures would be most effective were identified and local stakeholder associations to implement them were prioritized. The influence of the scale of implementation was evaluated by using the model to consider three adoption scenarios. This study illustrates the relevance of distributed erosion models to target erosion control measures when sufficient information on the eroding areas is available from field surveys. Bathymetric surveys were fundamental to validate the long-term model response, while point measurements were valuable to verify the spatial variability of model predictions.Key words soil erosion; sediment yield; sedimentation rate; distributed model; SWAT; Kenya; erosion control; soil conservation; watershed management Détermination des zones d'intervention pour la réduction de la sédimentation des réservoirs du bassin du Tana (Kenya) en utilisant SWAT Résumé Une campagne de mesures a été réalisée dans le bassin du Haut Tana (Kenya) afin de quantifier l'érosion des sols et les taux de sédimentation dans le réservoir, comprenant une étude bathymétrique du réservoir et l'échantillonnage des sédiments déposés pendant un an. Une modélisation distribuée de l'érosion des sols a ensuite été réalisée pour étudier le bilan des sédiments dans le bassin et évaluer le potentiel de contrôle de l'érosion en amont, par des bandes de végétation suivant les courbes de niveau et des barrages de retenue. Nous avons enfin identifié les zones où ces mesures seraient les plus efficaces, de même que les associations d'intervenants locaux susceptibles de les mettre en oeuvre. L'influence de la mise en oeuvre a été évaluée en utilisant le modèle selon trois scénarios. Cette étude illustre la pertinence des modèles d'érosion distribués pour concevoir des mesures de lutte contre l'érosion lorsque suffisamment d'informations sur les zones érodées, provenant d'enquêtes sur le terrain, sont disponibles. Les levés bathymétriques ont été fondamentaux pour valider la réponse du modèle à long terme, tandis que les mesures ponctuelles ont été utiles pour vérifier la variabilité spatiale des prévisions du modèle.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT

Hunink¹,

Niadas

Antonaropoulos

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Due to the absence of recent river flow data, the long-term average discharge was used to assess the performance of the model assuming that, if the long-term average hydrology is simulated well, the model can be trusted to assess future changes in water availability. Moreover, it has been proven that relative model accuracy (difference between current situation and scenario) is higher than absolute model accuracy (difference between model output and observations) (Bormann, 2005;Arabi et al, 2007;. Figure 5 shows the results of the performance on stream flows.…”

Section: Model Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

Droogers¹,

Immerzeel²,

Terink³

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

182

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km 3 yr −1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km 3 yr −1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km 3 yr −1 . This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50 % with a decrease in water supply by 12 %. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km 3 yr −1 to 283 km 3 yr −1 in 2050. The analysis shows that 22 % of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78 % to changes in socioeconomic factors.

show abstract

“…Furthermore, for practical applicability, the selected number of 10 000 simulations is considered as reasonably sufficient for this study. The selected likelihood function is the Nash efficiency coefficient (NS) (Nash and Sutcliffe 1970), since it has been widely used as a likelihood measure within GLUE in the literature (Beven and Freer 2001, Arabi et al 2007, Shen et al 2012:…”

Section: Glue Generalized Likelihood Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Sellami

Jeunesse

Benabdallah

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage−discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.Keywords Mediterranean catchments; parameter uncertainty; uncertainty analysis; model calibration; SWAT; rating curve uncertainty Analyse de la propagation des incertitudes de la courbe de tarage et des paramètres du modèle SWAT pour deux petits bassins versants de la région méditerranéenne Résumé Dans cet article le modèle SWAT a été testé pour simuler l'écoulement de deux petits bassins versants (la Vène et le Pallas) en région méditerranéenne dans le sud de la France. Le calage du modèle et l'incertitude des prévisions ont été évalués simultanément en utilisant trois techniques différentes (SUFI-2, COLLE et Parasol). Tout d'abord, une analyse de sensibilité a été réalisée en utilisant la méthode de LH-OAT. Le calage des paramètres sensibles et l'incertitude des prévisions de SWAT ont été analysés en considérant, dans un premier temps, un débit déterministe (en supposant l'absence d'incertitude dans les données de débit), et dans un second temps, en considérant l'incertitude liée aux données de débit à travers le développement d'une méthodologie qui tient compte explicitement des erreurs dans la courbe de tarage (relation hauteur d'eau et vélocité d'écoulement). Pour comparer efficacement les différentes méthodes d'estimation de l'incertitude et l'effet de l'incertitude de la courbe de tarage sur l'incertitude des prévisions du modèle, des critères communs ont été définis pour la fonction de vraisemblance, la valeur seuil et le nombre de simulations. Les résultats montrent que l'incertitude des prévisions du modèle est non seulement spécifique au cas d'étude mais dépend aussi de la technique d'analyse d'incertitude sélec...

show abstract

A probabilistic approach for analysis of uncertainty in the evaluation of watershed management practices

Cited by 164 publications

References 28 publications

Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT

Targeting of intervention areas to reduce reservoir sedimentation in the Tana catchment (Kenya) using SWAT

Water resources trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About