A probabilistic approach to soil layer and bedrock-level modeling for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence

Sundell, Jonas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Haaf, Ezra

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.11.006

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The simulation of soil stratification shows good correspondence with a reference data set (30% of all samples were selected and not used for modeling); see Sundell et al (20) for details. The subsidence simulations, however, cannot be fully validated since they correspond to a future, undesired, scenario.…”

Section: Accuracy Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The simulation of soil stratification shows good correspondence with a reference data set (30% of all samples were selected and not used for modeling); see Sundell et al . for details.…”

Section: Stockholm Case Studymentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A geological model provides information on continuity of stratigraphy between boreholes and helps to understand spatial variation. The simulation of soil stratification follows the procedure presented in Sundell et al (20) but a short summary applied on simulation of vertical stress follows here. For the case study, the soil stratification is conceptualized into three continuous layers: filling material, clay, and coarse-grained glacial material (glacial till and/or glaciofluvial deposits) on top of the bedrock; see ( Fig.…”

Section: Soil Stratification Model and Vertical Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, about 20,000 boreholes containing information on soil stratification exist from previous construction projects. Out of these, 14,300 are selected for modeling and the rest used as a validation data set; see Sundell et al (20) From the modeling data set, 6,500 boreholes contain information on bedrock levels, 7,800 do not reach the bedrock, and 4,000 contain information on soil stratification.…”

Section: Sampling Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

et al. 2017

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Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from lowrisk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk-reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.

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Section: Accuracy Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…The simulation of soil stratification shows good correspondence with a reference data set (30% of all samples were selected and not used for modeling); see Sundell et al . for details.…”

Section: Stockholm Case Studymentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Soil Stratification Model and Vertical Stressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sampling Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

et al. 2017

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Geological Uncertainty Quantification

Yousefzadeh¹,

Kazemi²,

Ahmadi³

et al. 2023

SpringerBriefs in Petroleum Geoscience &Amp; Engineering

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Comprehensive risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced subsidence

Sundell

Haaf

Tornborg

et al. 2019

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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We present a method for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence when planning for subsurface infrastructure. Since groundwater drawdown and related subsidence can occur at large distances from the points of inflow, the large spatial extent often implies heterogeneous geological conditions that cannot be described in complete detail. This calls for estimation of uncertainties in all components of the cause-effect chain with probabilistic methods. In this study, we couple four probabilistic methods into a comprehensive model for economic risk quantification: a geostatistical soil-stratification model, an inverse calibrated groundwater model, an elasto-plastic subsidence model, and a model describing the resulting damages and costs on individual buildings and constructions. Groundwater head measurements, hydraulic tests, statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties and an inventory of buildings are inputs to the models. In the coupled method, different design alternatives for risk reduction measures are evaluated. Integration of probabilities and damage costs result in an economic risk estimate for each alternative. Compared with the risk for a reference alternative, the best prior alternative is identified as the alternative with the highest expected net benefit. The results include spatial probabilistic risk estimates for each alternative where areas with significant risk are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modelling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned railway tunnel in Varberg, Sweden.

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A probabilistic approach to soil layer and bedrock-level modeling for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence

Cited by 18 publications

References 17 publications

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Geological Uncertainty Quantification

Comprehensive risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced subsidence

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