Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Abstract

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from lowrisk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk-reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.

Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis

“…The previously mentioned article by Cope et al (2019) contributes to this stage by developing an interactive web app so users may observe how the risk of invasive species changes with changes in the model parameters. Sundell et al (2019), also mentioned before, show how mapped risk areas and the results of the sensitivity analysis could be used to support decision making and communication with stakeholders about mitigation and monitoring measures. They mention the case for the planned City Link Tunnel in Stockholm, where their maps have been successfully used for risk communication in legal court in the application for the permit to modify groundwater conditions.…”

“…Sundell et al. (), also mentioned before, show how mapped risk areas and the results of the sensitivity analysis could be used to support decision making and communication with stakeholders about mitigation and monitoring measures. They mention the case for the planned City Link Tunnel in Stockholm, where their maps have been successfully used for risk communication in legal court in the application for the permit to modify groundwater conditions.…”

“…They find that geographic distance is an important predictor of the potential risk of invasive species, in addition to transport and environmental similarity. Sundell et al (2019) present a novel method for combining a probabilistic soil stratification model with statistical analysis of compression parameters for simulation of subsidence on a large area with a simple nonlinear 1D compression model. The results of this simulation include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and are used to create risk maps where areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low-risk areas.…”

“…In their case study of the Chinese civil-aviation network, Hu et al (2019) consider three scenarios for the spatial distribution of local hazards. Sundell et al (2019) consider three scenarios for water-drawdown measurements in their study of potential subsidence induced by the excavation of a planned power-line tunnel in Stockholm. Ferretti and Montibeller (2019) consider the sensitivity of their proposed model for multiimpact spatial risk analysis to changes in the criterion weights of an additive utility function used to aggregate different impact categories.…”

Assessing Risks from Groundwater Exploitation and Utilization: Case Study of the Shanghai Megacity, China

“…Furthermore, the exploitation of groundwater in different countries was highly variable. By the end of the 20th century, global groundwater exploitation exceeded 7500 × 10 8 m 3 /a, which has led to a series of environmental problems, such as groundwater funnelling, seawater intrusion, land subsidence, soil salinization, desertification, and water pollution, and serious disasters and economic losses [2]. Therefore, the sustainability and management of the groundwater development and utilization require the correct understanding and assessment of these risks and problems caused by unreasonable exploitation and utilization of groundwater resources.…”