A PROBABILISTIC BENEFIT‐COST ANALYSIS OF A ZONING PROGRAM FOR FLOOD PLAINS¹

Abstract

Various techniques, one of which is zoning, are used to control the extent of flood damage. The benefit‐cost analysis of zoning programs must take into account the random nature of flooding. This paper outlines a method for determining not only the expected value of the benefit‐cost ratio, but also the probability of such a zoning program being profitable. It also presents an application of the method to the assessment of the Outaouais Regional Community zoning program.

Cost–benefit analysis of flood‐zoning policies: A review of current practice

“…Stage 5 compiled the final set of studies to be reviewed. A total of nine suitable documents were included: Whipple (), Leblanc and Ouellette (), Ouellette, Leblanc, El‐Jabi, and Rousselle (), Millerd, Dufournaud, and Schaefer (), Brouwer and van Ek (), Rose et al (), Aerts et al (), de Bruin, Goosen, van Lerland, and Groeneveld (), and Aubé, Hébert, Wilson, Trenholm, and Patriquin ().…”

“…Leblanc and Ouellette (), Ouellette et al (), Millerd et al (), and Rose et al () evaluated known zoning programs: namely Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regulations across the United States (Rose et al, ), and zoning regulations in a few small Canadian communities (the remaining three studies). Aubé et al () conducted a CBA of a potential zoning policy against coastal flooding in a small Canadian community.…”

“…A more detailed discussion of this approach is found in Kind et al (). This discussion is relevant for zoning since whether impacts are valued equally when they accrue to poor or rich groups can influence the overall desirability of the zoning policy (Leblanc & Ouellette, ; Millerd et al, ).…”

“…A total of nine suitable documents were included: Whipple (1969), Leblanc and Ouellette (1988), Ouellette, Leblanc, El-Jabi, and Rousselle (1988), Millerd, Dufournaud, and Schaefer (1994), Brouwer and van Ek (2004), Rose et al (2007), Aerts et al (2014), de Bruin, Goosen, van Lerland, andGroeneveld (2014), and Aubé, Hébert, Wilson, Trenholm, and Patriquin (2016). Leblanc and Ouellette (1988), Ouellette et al (1988), Millerd et al (1994), and Rose et al (2007) evaluated known zoning programs: namely Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) regulations across the United States (Rose et al, 2007), and zoning regulations in a few small Canadian communities (the remaining three studies). Aubé et al (2016) conducted a CBA of a potential zoning policy against coastal flooding in a small Canadian community.…”

“…To correct for the time value of money and make values over time comparable, discount factors are used to estimate the present value of future costs and benefits (Rose et al, 2007). Present values are is a more detailed study than Leblanc and Ouellette (1988).…”