A Probabilistic Model of Attribution Applied to an Achievement Situation

Abstract

A model of the attribution process based upon an observer's probability estimates is presented. Four hypotheses were tested using hypothetical achievement situations. Subjects were presented with a student's present quiz grade, the class average, and the student's average on past quizzes. Five levels for each of these three independent variables created a 5 × 5 × 5 factorial design. The model assumed that the results of achievement behavior can be attributed either internally or externally and either stably or unstably. The dependent variables were subjects' ratings of the level and importance of ability, effort, task difficulty, and luck as possible causes for the student's present quiz grade. Three of the four hypotheses were strongly supported. The advantages and implications of this approach are discussed.

Stability of causal attributions as a mediator in changing expectations for success.

“…Competence manipulations were based upon research (Carlson & Mayfleld, 1967;Mayfield & Carlson, 1966) showing the characteristics that had been empirically demonstrated to be related to expectations of performance in life insurance sales. 3 The figures used here for actual sales performance were hypothetical and not based on actual life insurance data.…”

“…The subjects were then asked whether they would hire this individual and how many sales they expected this applicant to make during the first 3 months of employment given that the average salesperson makes IS sales during a 3-month period. 3 Upon completion of Section 1 the subjects were asked to open an attached envelope that contained Sections 2 and 3. In Section 2 the applicant (now hired) was described as having made 20 sales, which was well above average, during the first 3 months of employment.…”