A Programming Model for Analysis of the Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability of a Water Supply Reservoir

Abstract

Reliability in water supply reservoir operation is commonly thought of as the probability of failing to achieve some target release. Here we explore two additional proposed descriptions of reservoir performance: the maximum shortfall from the target (system vulnerability) and the maximum number of consecutive periods of deficit during a record (system resilience). The larger the maximum shortfall, the greater the vulnerability. The shorter the maximum length of deficits, the more resilient the system. Using multiobjective mixed‐integer, linear programming, the tradeoffs between reliability, vulnerability, and resilience are examined. It is found that as reliability is increased or as the maximum length of consecutive shortfalls decreases (resilience increases), the vulnerability of the water system to larger deficits increases.

Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

“…(14) as discussed previously (Fowler et al 2003;Park and Kim 2014). Moy et al (1986) defined it as the maximum number of consecutive periods of shortage that occur prior to recovery.…”

“…By the RCY analysis, the vulnerability of the reservoir is estimated by ignoring the constraint on Eq. (12) and then choosing the maximum negative value of (S t+1 ) during the analysis period, whereas the resilience is estimated by computing the maximum consecutive number of empty months during the analysis (Moy et al 1986).…”

Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Dam Storage Capacity before and after the Rainy Season and Evaluation on Water Supply Capacity

“…또한 Hashimoto et al (1982) (Fiering, 1982;Jinno et al, 1995;Kundzewicz and Laski, 1995;Vogel and Bolognese, 1995;Kundzewicz and Kindler, 1995;Srinivasan et al, 1999;Vogel et al, 1999). 대표적으로 평균 용수공급 부족기간 (Hashimoto et al, 1982)과 최대 용수공급 부족기간 (Moy et al, 1986)을 고려한 회복도의 정의를 식으로 나타낸 결 과는 다음 Eqs. (3) and (4)와 같다.…”

“…이는 장래 수문의 불확실성 및 수요의 변동성을 고려함으로써 용수공급의 안정성을 최 대로 확보하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 총 부족량 (Hashimoto et al, 1982)과 평균 부족량 (Moy et al, 1986)을 고려한 취 약도의 정의를 식으로 나타낸 결과는 다음 Eqs. (5) and (6)과 같다.…”

Analysis of Problems of Water Supply Capacity Determination in Water Resources Systems

“…Hashimoto et al (1982)은 신뢰도 지표외에 회복도 및 취약도 지표를 제시하여 수자원시스템 용수공급 평가지 표를 새롭게 정리하였다. 이후 여러 가지 변형된 지표들 (Moy et al, 1986;Jinno et al, 1995;Kundzewicz and Laski, 1995;Vogel and Bolognese, 1995;Kundzewicz and Kindler, 1995;Srinivasan et al, 1999) (1) …”