Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Mohammed, Ruqayah; Scholz, Miklas

doi:10.1007/s11269-017-1685-7

Cited by 35 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…To apply the delta perturbation (DP) scenarios, many researchers (Tigkas et al 2012; Al-Faraj and Scholz 2014; Mohammed and Scholz 2017c) used, as a baseline time period, certain periods that represent normal climatic conditions rather than using the entire available datasets. For example, in order to develop preparedness strategies to address the consequences of climate change such as drought phenomena, Mohammed and Scholz (2017c) utilised the DP climate scenario. For the DP scenario application, they defined the normal climatic time period through calculating the RDI values based on the entire datasets.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period

Mohammed

Scholz

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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Recent climate change studies have given a lot of attention to the uncertainty that stems from general circulation models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological models and downscaling approaches. Yet, the uncertainty that stems from the selection of the baseline period has not been studied. Accordingly, the main research question is as follows: What would be the differences and/or the similarities in the evaluation of climate change impacts between the GCM and the delta perturbation scenarios using different baseline periods? This article addresses this issue through comparison of the results of two different baseline periods, investigating the uncertainties in evaluating climate change impact on the hydrological characteristics of arid regions. The Lower Zab River Basin (Northern Iraq) has been selected as a representative case study. The research outcomes show that the considered baseline periods suggest increases and decreases in the temperature and precipitation (P), respectively, over the 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods. The two climatic scenarios are likely to lead to similar reductions in the reservoir mean monthly flows, and subsequently, their maximum discharge is approximately identical. The predicted reduction in the inflow for the 2080-2099 time period fluctuates between 31 and 49% based on SRA1B and SRA2 scenarios, respectively. The delta perturbation scenario permits the sensitivity of the climatic models to be clearly determined compared to the GCM. The former allows for a wide variety of likely climate change scenarios at the regional level and are easier to generate and apply so that they could complement the latter.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period

Mohammed

Scholz

2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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“…Alteration of seasonal river flow elements, such as minimum and maximum flows caused by climate change, drought, and anthropogenic intervention has created concern for hydrologists, owing to the consequences for riverine environments (Doll and Zhang 2010;Mittal et al 2016;Mohammed and Scholz 2017c). In general, climate change causes a variation in the weather variables, thereby altering hydrological parameters (Mittal et al 2016).…”

Section: Background and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The GCM are data-demanding and time-consuming. Accordingly, and to avoid such difficulties and uncertainties that are linked to the GCM scenarios, recently, numerous researchers have adopted the delta perturbation (DP) scenario (e.g., Tigkas et al 2012;Al-Faraj and Scholz 2014;Soundharajan et al 2016;Reis et al 2016;Mohammed and Scholz 2017c). The DP scenario is easy-to-use, provide data on a range of potential variations and can readily be applied in a reliable manner for different research areas.…”

Section: Background and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The arch dam Dokan was built between 1957 and 1961 upstream from the town Dokan, having a top elevation of 116 m above the bed of the river (516 m) and 360 m length. The core purposes of Dokan dam are to control the streamflow, supply irrigation water, and supply hydroelectric power (Mohammed and Scholz 2017c). Dibis dam was built between 1960 and 1965, and is situated about 130 km upstream of the confluence with the Tigris River.…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and anthropogenic intervention impact on the hydrologic anomalies in a semi-arid area: Lower Zab River Basin, Iraq

Mohammed

Scholz

2018

Environ Earth Sci

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Climate change impact, drought phenomena and anthropogenic stress are of increasing apprehension for water resource managers and strategists, particularly in arid regions. The current study proposes a generic methodology to evaluate the potential impact of such changes at a basin scale. The Lower Zab River Basin located in the north of Iraq has been selected for illustration purposes. The method has been developed through evaluating changes during normal hydrological years to separate the effects of climate change and estimate the hydrologic abnormalities utilising Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. The meteorological parameters were perturbed by applying adequate delta perturbation climatic scenarios. Thereafter, a calibrated rainfall-runoff model was used for streamflow simulations. Findings proved that climate change has a more extensive impact on the hydrological characteristics of the streamflow than anthropogenic intervention (i.e. the construction of a large dam in the catchment). The isolated baseflow is more sensitive to the precipitation variations than to the variations of the potential evapotranspiration. The current hydrological anomalies are expected to continue. This comprehensive basin study demonstrates how climate change impact, anthropogenic intervention as well as hydro-climatic drought and hydrological anomalies can be evaluated with a new methodology.

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“…Water is a critical factor in restricting both economic development and ecological restoration, and it constitutes a core component of environmental and ecosystem research 1–4 . Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most important part of the water cycle, especially in semiarid inland areas, and it has a crucial role in measures adopted to save agricultural water, manage water resources, and monitor drought 5–8 . ET is a central process in the climate system and it represents a nexus of the water, energy, and carbon cycles 9 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Higher temporal evapotranspiration estimation with improved SEBS model from geostationary meteorological satellite data

Jing

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2019

Sci Rep

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Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key variable in hydrologic cycle that directly affects the redistribution of precipitation and surface balance. ET measurements with high temporal resolution are required for coupling with models of highly dynamic processes, e.g., hydrological and land surface processes. The Haihe River Basin is the focus of China’s industrial base and it is one of the three major grain-producing regions within the country. However, this area is facing serious water resource shortages and water pollution problems. The present study used geostationary satellite remote sensing data, in situ meteorological observations, and the surface energy balance system (SEBS) model with a new kB−1 parameterization to estimate 3-hourly and daily energy and water fluxes in the Haihe River Basin. The results of the SEBS model were validated with point-scale data from five observation flux towers. Validation showed that 3-hourly and daily ET derived from the SEBS model performed well (R2 = 0.67, mean bias = 0.027 mm/h, RMSE = 0.1 mm/h). Moreover, factors influencing ET were also identified based on the results of this study. ET varies with land cover type and physical and chemical properties of the underlying surface. Furthermore, ET is also controlled by water availability, radiation, and other atmospheric conditions. It was found that ET had strong correlation with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Specifically, daily ET fluctuated with the NDVI when the NDVI was <0.29, and ET increased rapidly as the NDVI increased from 0.29 to 0.81. For NDVI values >0.81, indicating a state of saturation, the rate of increase of ET slowed. This research produced reliable information that could assist in sustainable management of the water resources and in improved understanding of the hydrologic cycle of the Haihe River Basin.

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Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Cited by 35 publications

References 19 publications

Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period

Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period

Climate change and anthropogenic intervention impact on the hydrologic anomalies in a semi-arid area: Lower Zab River Basin, Iraq

Higher temporal evapotranspiration estimation with improved SEBS model from geostationary meteorological satellite data

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