We sought to use publicly available data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a multicenter prospective cohort study, to determine the rate of joint space loss and likelihood of knee arthroplasty due to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-diagnosed meniscal tears or meniscal extrusion in middle-aged adults with no to mild knee osteoarthritis. Participants (n = 2199; mean age, 60.2 years) with Kellgren-Lawrence osteoarthritis grades 2 (mild) (48.7%) or 0 to 1 (none) (51.3%) underwent knee MRIs at enrollment and were followed radiographically for 8 years and for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for 9 years. Rate of joint space loss and risk of arthroplasty due to meniscal tears and/or extrusion were determined by multivariate modeling. Prevalence of baseline medial meniscus tears was 21.3% and lateral tears was 12.8%; 26.9% had medial meniscal extrusion (79.6%, <2 mm; 20.4%, +2 mm) and 5.4% had lateral extrusion (75.9%, <2 mm; 24.1%, +2 mm). Median medial joint space loss was 0.06 mm/y and lateral was 0.05 mm/y. Medial tears regardless of extrusion were associated with accelerated medial joint space loss (additional mean, 0.05 mm/y; P = .001). Lateral tears were associated with accelerated lateral joint space loss (additional 0.09 mm/y; P < .001) as was lateral extrusion (additional 0.10 mm/y; P < .001). The yearly incidence of knee arthroplasty was 0.5% without lateral extrusion, 1.5% with extrusion less than 2.0 mm, and 3.7% with extrusion greater than or equal to 2.0 mm. Both medial and lateral tears accelerate joint space loss in middle-aged adults. Lateral meniscal extrusion further accelerates joint space loss and increases risk of progression to TKA within 9 years. K E Y W O R D S knee osteoarthritis, meniscal extrusion, meniscus tears, total knee arthroplasty 1 | INTRODUCTION An intact knee meniscus plays a critical role and serves to preserve normal joint surface contact forces by providing load dispersion and withstanding shear and compression forces. 1,2 Meniscal tears are one of the most commonly encountered orthopedic injuries, with an incidence of 24 per 100 000 person-years. 3 There has been increasing evidence that damage to the meniscus and removal of meniscal tissue via meniscectomy can result in early-onset osteoarthritis (OA) later in life. 4,5 Meniscus loss can result in increased joint laxity,