A Prototype Decision Making Tool of Coal Mine Planning Using System Dynamics Model

Sontamino, Phongpat; Drebenstedt, Carsten

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-02678-7_142

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…The complex optimization method of decision making on the basis of mine mathematical representation as a whole and the use of computers is used by modern design to justify the parameters of the mines in conventional mining ( The implementation of the complex optimization method of decision making makes the collaborative parameter optimization of the coal mine possible, such as (thickness, service life, allotment size), opening schemes, preparation and mining methods, ventilation and transport schemes with simultaneous determination of rational cuts of mine roadway network, mechanical means and others (Sontamino and Drebenstedt, 2014;Hu et al, 2014).…”

Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariance Solutions for Designing New Levels of Coal Mines

Lozynskyi

Medianyk

Saik

et al. 2020

MGPB

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In this article, variants of technological designing of new mining enterprise levels for obtaining the skills of engineering task execution are considered. The complex approach for the justification of a mine's parameters is examined. The combinations of quantitative and qualitative parameters for designing new coal-face and preparation works, transport, ventilation, and draining-out of gases, pumping, and mineral deposits while keeping cost reduction in mind for all stages of mining enterprise operations are presented. The obtained results allow us to lay the foundations for optimizing the parameters of the development system and the rational order for the coal reserves, under the changing mining and geological conditions of coal field deposit development. Conclusions regarding the implementation of the multivariance solutions in new coal mine level designing are made on the basis of undertaken investigations. The obtained results with sufficient accuracy in a practical application can be used to determine the development of new coal mine levels.

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Section: Methodological Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multivariance Solutions for Designing New Levels of Coal Mines

Lozynskyi

Medianyk

Saik

et al. 2020

MGPB

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“…As depicted in Table III, there are some research using system dynamics in several industries, mainly in the mining industry. The system dynamics model has been applied in a research of mining industry by Pongphat Sontamino (2014) to develop the decision support system of a coal mine planning due to Thai Government's plan to run an 800 MW coal power plant, which may run on imported coal, despite there being reserves of lignite. To reach a decision on investment in a mining project is not easy; it is a complex process in which all variables are connected.…”

Section: System Dynamics and Causal Loop Diagrammentioning

confidence: 99%

Designing smelter industry investment competitiveness policy in Indonesia through system dynamics model

Hanafi

Wibisono

Mangkusubroto

et al. 2019

JSTPM

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Purpose This research aims to examine the smelter industry’s investment competitiveness in Indonesia as well as to find solutions to improve its competitive advantage for the nation. Design/methodology/approach This research applies a sequential mixed-methods approach with a second quantitative phase building on an initial first qualitative phase. The qualitative phase is conducted by interviews to find the root causes of problems as well as solutions to gain smelter industries’ competitiveness. The quantitative phase is conducted by a system dynamics model. A descriptive causal loop diagram is created based on interviews and focus group discussions to describe the problems. The concept of competitive advantage of a nation from Porter’s diamond model is applied in this research. Findings The results reveal the complexity of smelter industries in Indonesia. The paper also addresses the causes of problems and interaction of variables using a causal loop diagram. To gain the smelter industry’s competitiveness, this paper suggests the potential policy development to increase competitiveness of the smelter industry such as policy for different fiscal incentives to each different mineral, effective export duty and exploration obligation. Practical implications The result of this study provides a good basis for government in making policy to improve the competitive advantage of the smelter industry investment in Indonesia. Originality/value This is the first research on smelter industry competitiveness that applies Porter’s diamond model and system dynamics model to find solutions in designing appropriate policy to gain competitiveness.

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“…Dimitrakopoulos and Sabour [20] proposed a simulation-based real options valuation (ROV) method for selecting the most profitable mine design, which can handle multiple uncertainties and the variability of cash flow parameters that characterize mining projects. Sontamino and Drebenstedt [21] developed decisionsupported systems for evaluating the feasibility to open a coal mine project in Thailand. Ajak and Topal [22] designed a binomial decision tree model, which centered on using RO in design and decision-making at the mine operational level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Real Options on the Decision-Making of Mining Investment Projects Using the System Dynamics Method

Liu

et al. 2019

IEEE Access

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Estimating the valuation of mining projects has great significance for investment decisionmaking. Since the existing valuation methods are not appropriate for mining projects affected by various uncertainties over the long term, this paper presents a hybrid investment evaluation model that is based on real options and system dynamics for mining projects. To address uncertainties and managerial flexibilities that are contained in mining projects, the model integrates the static net present value calculated by traditional discount cash flows and the real options value generated by the Black-Scholes model into the total value of mining projects. Subsequently, the model applies system dynamics modeling to analyze the dynamics of the complicated mining operation system, quantify its variables and interactions, and estimate its volatility, which enables a more accurate real options valuation. A realistic case of the Hongwei uranium deposit in China is the basis for the presented numerical illustration of the model. The findings indicate that investors are prone to losing an opportunity to invest if they only rely on traditional discount cash flows' methods, because the value of the project calculated by discount cash flows is −175.59 million yuan that under zero. However, the results obtained from the method proposed in this paper suggest that the project has a value of 327.65 million yuan.INDEX TERMS Decision making, estimation, modeling, real options, system dynamics.

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A Prototype Decision Making Tool of Coal Mine Planning Using System Dynamics Model

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Multivariance Solutions for Designing New Levels of Coal Mines

Multivariance Solutions for Designing New Levels of Coal Mines

Designing smelter industry investment competitiveness policy in Indonesia through system dynamics model

Application of Real Options on the Decision-Making of Mining Investment Projects Using the System Dynamics Method

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