A quantitative examination of lightning as a predictor of peak winds in tropical cyclones

Abstract

We use the World Wide Lightning Location Network to investigate lightning strike variations in 8 years of categories 4 and 5 tropical cyclones. A cross‐correlation analysis is performed between the lightning and maximum sustained wind variations, giving lag and lead times related to the peak linear correlation for each tropical cyclone. A previous study of 58 cyclones by Price et al. (2009) is reexamined using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database for the maximum sustained wind speeds of each tropical cyclone showing a moderate to strong correlation between lightning and wind variations. An 8 year data set of 144 tropical cyclones are analyzed in the same way, with a 10° square window, giving similar results to the smaller data set. Using a radial lightning collection window of < 500 km, we confirm the general results of previous studies that lightning can be used on a ∼1 day timescale to predict the evolution of the winds in tropical cyclones. Investigation of different lightning collection window sizes indicates that the lightning lead times are highly dependent upon the window size. Smaller collection windows have modal lightning lead times of ∼2.75 and 0 days, indicating that the lightning location inside the cyclone is as important as the total lightning variation. We have also performed a fixed time lag correlation which shows that preexisting knowledge of what time lag to use is needed in order to use this approach as a predictive tool.

Relationships between total lightning, deep convection, and tropical cyclone intensity change

“…For example, increases in eyewall CG lightning flashes were also found in individual weakening TCs [Squires and Businger, 2008;Thomas et al, 2010]. Other studies found a strong positive correlation (r = 0.7-0.8) between CG lightning frequency and TC intensity for a significant number of major hurricanes [Price et al, 2009;Pan et al, 2014;Whittaker et al, 2015]. These studies analyzed CG lightning flashes within the entire TC, not subdividing by the INCO and OB regions, the latter dominating the TC total area.…”

“…Based on 5 years of TC samples in the northwestern Pacific basin, Zhang et al [] showed that RI TCs exhibit substantially higher INCO lightning density than rapidly weakening (RW) TCs, although INCO lightning density in RI and neutral TCs was similar. Other studies found a strong positive correlation ( r = 0.7–0.8) between lightning frequency and MSW in major hurricanes when the entire TC region is included [ Price et al , ; Pan et al , ; Whittaker et al , ]. These latter studies showed that TC peak intensity is preceded (~24 h) by increased cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning activity.…”

“…These latter studies showed that TC peak intensity is preceded (~24 h) by increased cloud‐to‐ground (CG) lightning activity. Whittaker et al [] further demonstrated that time scales of lightning leading TC winds are highly dependent upon the TC area used for the lightning estimation. Lightning density in the outer rainband (OB) region is more likely to increase prior to TC intensification [ DeMaria et al , ; Stevenson et al , ].…”

“…To date most TC lightning studies used ground-based measurements from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) [Black and Hallett, 1999;Molinari et al, 1999] and the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) [Price et al, 2009;DeMaria et al, 2012;Pan et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2015;Whittaker et al, 2015;Stevenson et al, 2016]. While the NLDN detects lightning only within a few hundred kilometers of land, the WWLLN detects mainly CG lightning over open oceans (and land).…”

Lightning activity in the Mediterranean: quantification of cyclones contribution and relation to their intensity

“…Especially for tropical hurricanes, several studies have shown that strong lightning activity occurred prior to the cyclones maximum intensity. For instance, Price et al () and Whittaker et al () showed in a climatological approach that the maximum of lightning impacts occurred approximately 1 day before hurricane winds attain their maximum speed. While numerous studies that investigate the relation between lightning and cyclones are devoted to tropical hurricanes, the relevant literature over the Mediterranean is limited.…”