A Re-Examination of Hernes' Model on the Process of Entry into First Marriage for United States Women, Cohorts 1891-1945

Hastings, Donald W.; Robinson, J. Gregory

doi:10.2307/2094337

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Some form of marriage is found in almost every culture, and in nearly all societies most adults are expected to marry. In the United States, more than 90 percent of every female birth cohort on record since the mid-1800s has eventually married (Cherlin 1992;Hastings and Robinson 1973). Over this century, the prevalence of marriage has remained high despite social and economic changes, wars, and changes in gender roles.…”

Section: Recent Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We are the first to use the Hernes model to forecast the future experience of incomplete cohorts, although Hastings and Robinson (1973) suggested this application in the early 1970s. One obstacle in forecasting with the model was the lack of good statistical methods for fitting the Hernes model.…”

Section: Completedmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To study the effect of education on the timing and eventual level of first marriage, we divide our sample into two educational attainment groups: college graduates and those Note: Numbers in parentheses are 95-percent confidence intervals. The estimates for the Hernes Model in column 1 use U.S. census data (Hastings and Robinson 1973); the forecasts for the Coale-McNeil Model in column 2 use data from the June 1985 CPS (Bloom and Bennett 1990); the forecasts in column 3 use the Coale-McNeil model with data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households (Bennett, Bloom, and Craig 1989); our forecasts are based on fits of June 1995 CPS data. For sample size information, see note 9.…”

Section: Proportions Of Women Ever Marrying By Education and Racementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women

Goldstein¹,

Kenney²

2001

American Sociological Review

496

418

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Recent Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Completedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Proportions Of Women Ever Marrying By Education and Racementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women

Goldstein¹,

Kenney²

2001

American Sociological Review

496

418

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…Hernes stacks up rather well against Coale-McNeil. Goodness of Fit Although I know of no systematic, rigorous comparison of the goodness of fit of the two models across a wide array of empirical data, published evidence and my own experience point to the conclusion that both models fit first marriage curves very well. Hastings and Robinson (1973) used Hernes to fit data on several U.S. cohorts, with relatively small errors for most of them (formal measures of goodness of fit are not reported). Diekmann (1989) concludes, based on German and U.S. data, that Hernes performs well when compared with several other models of the class evaluated (diffusion models).…”

Section: Canonization Versus Relative Neglectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model-Based Demography

Burch

2018

Demographic Research Monographs

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public.

show abstract

“…Hastings and Robinson (1973) used Hernes to fit data on several U.S. cohorts, with relatively small errors for most of them (formal measures of goodness of fit are not reported). Diekmann (1989) concludes, based on German and U.S. data, that Hernes performs well when compared with several other models of the class evaluated (diffusion models).…”

Section: Canonization Versus Relative Neglectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior

Burch

2017

Demographic Research Monographs

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This is a story of two demographic models -their structure, rationale and interpretation, goodness of fit, and reception by demographers. The story raises interesting questions about demography -the structure of the discipline and its scientific community, attitudes toward theory and scientific methodology, and paths of future development. The two models are the Coale-McNeil (1972) and the Hernes (1972) models of first marriage. Developed at roughly the same time, the models have experienced rather different fates. The Coale-McNeil model has entered the standard repertoire of technical demography. It has been 'canonized,' as that term is used in a recent essay on culture by Griswold (1987) -that is, accepted by 'that elite group of specialists who may legitimately talk about value' (p. 11).The Hernes model, by contrast, was largely ignored by mainstream demography until recently. It is not mentioned in the United Nations Manual X in the section on 'Nuptiality Models,' and is mentioned only briefly if at all in many other treatments of marriage in recent demographic literature.Yet by ordinary scientific standards, the Hernes model does not seem inferior to Coale-McNeil. In some respects, it might even be judged a more elegant and wellrounded piece of scientific work. How can one explain its relative neglect? After a closer look at the two models, I return to this question below, suggesting that part of the answer lies in a predilection of mainstream demography for certain styles of work, with emphasis on measurement and the technical side of modelling, and a tendency to neglect issues of behavioral theory. More than is commonly realized, demography is two disciplines, one a branch of applied statistics dealing with population, the other a branch of social and behavioral science, focusing on This chapter is a slightly revised version of a paper presented at

show abstract

A Re-Examination of Hernes' Model on the Process of Entry into First Marriage for United States Women, Cohorts 1891-1945

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? New Cohort Forecasts of First Marriage for U.S. Women

Model-Based Demography

Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About